Potential "W" formation forming here.
Looking for a bounce at 81.8% FIB RT, followed by a candle body close above the 50% ($34.5) to confirm a "W" bottom pattern and BULLISH CONTINUATION.
If PA does not close (1hr min) above the 50% (local) FIB RT, the probability of a move down to support at $19.5 becomes much more likely.
A 1hr close below the 81.8% FIB RT (local) would add confidence in the BEARISH SCENARIO playing out (Head and Shoulders) with a 34.5% corrective move.
There is a lot of confluence supporting the BEARISH CASE here with a retracement down to $20K, but the FUNDAMENTALS are screaming "THIS ISN'T OVER UNTIL THE FAT WHALE SINGS".
The only thing to do here is to WAIT for identifiable structure to develop. If this is indeed an ACCUMULATION CYLINDER prepping for a HUGE MOVE to the upside, PA should start showing some bullish signs soon.
Things to consider:
BULLISH:
- DXY rejected at the 90% resistance and is currently below the 21DEMA (90.2% INDEX) and could be headed much lower
- TOTAL MKCP has fallen under $1TRILLION
- BOND Market continues its DIVE to the downside, down 1.6% since 08JAN21
- Guggenheim Investments' N1-A is effective 31JAN21 (www.sec.gov/Archives...t112020485afidoc.htm)
- Retail FOMO is just getting started
BEARISH:
- MPI is showing a local top
- Last RE TEST of 21 WEMA was 21SEP20
- Strong (RSI) BEARISH DIVERGENCE on the weekly SPX
Looking for a bounce at 81.8% FIB RT, followed by a candle body close above the 50% ($34.5) to confirm a "W" bottom pattern and BULLISH CONTINUATION.
If PA does not close (1hr min) above the 50% (local) FIB RT, the probability of a move down to support at $19.5 becomes much more likely.
A 1hr close below the 81.8% FIB RT (local) would add confidence in the BEARISH SCENARIO playing out (Head and Shoulders) with a 34.5% corrective move.
There is a lot of confluence supporting the BEARISH CASE here with a retracement down to $20K, but the FUNDAMENTALS are screaming "THIS ISN'T OVER UNTIL THE FAT WHALE SINGS".
The only thing to do here is to WAIT for identifiable structure to develop. If this is indeed an ACCUMULATION CYLINDER prepping for a HUGE MOVE to the upside, PA should start showing some bullish signs soon.
Things to consider:
BULLISH:
- DXY rejected at the 90% resistance and is currently below the 21DEMA (90.2% INDEX) and could be headed much lower
- TOTAL MKCP has fallen under $1TRILLION
- BOND Market continues its DIVE to the downside, down 1.6% since 08JAN21
- Guggenheim Investments' N1-A is effective 31JAN21 (www.sec.gov/Archives...t112020485afidoc.htm)
- Retail FOMO is just getting started
BEARISH:
- MPI is showing a local top
- Last RE TEST of 21 WEMA was 21SEP20
- Strong (RSI) BEARISH DIVERGENCE on the weekly SPX
