BTC: looking for $5/5.8k

2018年12月1日

- bullish scenario
daily close above the yearly support would invalidate the classic behavior of a typical descending triangle (breakdown then retest of the old support as resistance and continuation downward)
i don't expect this to happen at the first attempt, more likely to see a consolidation between 5.5-5.8k.


- bearish scenario
if we get a bad rejection at 5.8k followed by a break below 5.5k then it will most likely follow what a descending triangle usually suggests.

2018年12月1日

注释

on h4 we can see a possible ascending triangle forming with 5k target

2018年12月1日

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could be 2017/18 is like 2013/14 but around 4 times slower

2018年12月7日

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this was something I mentioned weeks ago
just like the previous triangle when it broke down and an IHS was formed.
still early to talk about but given the bullish div on daily RSI and the volume (left shoulder with high volumes, head and right shoulder lower volumes and high volume when breaking the neckline which is at 4.5k) its very likely to see a 5.8k retest as resistance.
this pattern will be invalidated if 3.2k is broken.

2018年12月11日

交易开始

still in play

2018年12月19日

交易开始

still ok but seems like on 1h chart it topped


something similar to April so we may be in a distribution rang but if we see BTC above $4150 we cannot consider it anymore and the first idea about the IHS will be still valid.

2018年12月24日

交易开始

IHS still in play given the picture is getting even more clear.


bottom of the right shoulder around $3650

2018年12月24日

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2019年2月20日

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boring period for BTC. we have a hidden bearish div on daily which will be invalidated only if BTC breaks 78% fib ($4255).
could be a good point to short with tight stop loss.

2019年4月13日

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possible H&S in the making.
that will be another short opportunity if btc starts forming the head with descending volume.