Bitcoin poised for a serious correction
已更新
Introduction
Bitcoin has shown a lot of strength since I called the end of the bear market mid January. That was somewhat of an audacious call but so far it has played out in my favor. Nothing goes straight up and it seems that the time for bitcoin to have its first major pull back is upon us.
This is also my first post after being designated a “wizard” so I am caught between a couple of tensions. One is to keep on posting the quality of content that got me appointed (which is opaque to me). The other tension is to not be a try hard.
Primer on Divergences
Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal)
Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator
Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator
Hidden (Trend Continuation)
Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator
Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator
Indicators
Dynamic Network Value to Transactions Ratio by aamonkey
Bitcoin is the name of a payment network as well as the currency used on that network and the smallest division of that currency is the satoshi. This is compared to the dollar, which circulates around the world in the SWIFT system with the smallest division that most people use is the cent.
The Network Value Transaction ratio represents the cryptocurrency’s network value (which is its current market capitalization) and the transaction volume that’s transmitted through Bitcoin’s blockchain over a period of 24 hours. In other words, how much is money moving around compared to cost of bitcoin. It is closely related to the idea of the velocity of money. All things being equal when the velocity of money picks up things get expensive.
The indicator is simple to understand. When price is in the green the smart money looks to accumulate/absorb bitcoin and other cryptos and when the NVT moves to the red or even outside the red smart money looks to sell. This is time frame dependent. Right now we are quite hot on the 3 day time frame but no where near where I would be concerned on the weekly.
This circumstance makes it very painful to hold leveraged longs but also difficult to go short because that is against the larger trend. In other words, it is very easy to lose money here.
Average Directional Index D+ and D-
The ADX quite simply tells you how strong a move is. It uses a true range calculation to measure a D+ that compares previous high to one another. When you have higher highs the D+ in green goes up. The True Range Calculation also compares lows and when the lows are lower the D- goes up in red. When the green line is above the red line the trend is bullish and the higher it is above the red line the more bullish things are. When the red line is above the green line price is trending down.
When they cross it indicates neutrality, or in other words, price has moved sideways long enough that the positive and negative price action neutralized one another. It is possible for the D- and D+ to braid and cause a lot of damage to traders so the indicator is best used as part of a collection of indicators or to confirm a chart formation breakout.
Here the D+ is showing hidden bearish divergence. The trend is exhausting and we can se the D- is poised to begin swinging upward.
Relative Strength Index
This is one of the fundamental indicators for most traders. It compares average gains to average losses and when the average gains are more than the average losses price goes up. When the RSI is falling but price is still going up it is a sign that reversal is near.
Technical Analysis
The divergences are pretty easy to see and I am confident that there is a great dip buying opportunity brewing. Where the low is going to be is hard to say. How long it will take is also very difficult to determine. To make it easy for me, I will look to buy again when the NVT is green again on the 3 day. Should help me stay patient.
A 25% drop is very do able at this point. It would be price returning to a trendline that helped set up this uptrend. I hope to see some hidden bullish divergence when this bases out, which means I would want the RSI, MACD, etc, to be lower than then when this uptrend began. I don’t think the gaussain channel or the ketner will confine price action during this dip.
This weakness in bitcoin puts a lot of other long trades at serious risk. It is very hard for other cryptos to stay strong If you are holding be prepared for the value to go down. If you are margined be prepared to have your stop strategy tested.
Fundamental Analysis (technical analysis on the dollar)
DXY looks like it has caught support on both the Gaussian and Keltner channels and has set a double bottom. This sets up some W targeting with a fib draw from the low to the high of the bridge of the W. That target is in a lot of as it is in the micro bull trap of the previous high and against the trend line that was previous support and most likely resistance when tested again.
This fits my larger view on the dollar that it will have to retest its previous wedge resistance as support. This means something big is coming for the dollar and therefore the globe. I wonder what kind of dreadful evens will feed into the dollar decline. This zigzagging of the dollar is going to make dollar alternatives go crazy.
My Realistic worst case scenario for BTC
I have been operating under the assumption the low is in. If not, the easiest target to set is back to 10k. While I don’t expect it to happen it is the easiest way my analysis has been wrong and one I have to prepare for.
Conclusion
These are trying economic times. Trading discipline are going to be key as the dollar whipsaws around and people try to position themselves long, short and sideways. This is not the time to be opening trades without a good entry system and a good system to take profit and set stop losses.
Bitcoin has shown a lot of strength since I called the end of the bear market mid January. That was somewhat of an audacious call but so far it has played out in my favor. Nothing goes straight up and it seems that the time for bitcoin to have its first major pull back is upon us.
This is also my first post after being designated a “wizard” so I am caught between a couple of tensions. One is to keep on posting the quality of content that got me appointed (which is opaque to me). The other tension is to not be a try hard.
Primer on Divergences
Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal)
Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator
Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator
Hidden (Trend Continuation)
Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator
Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator
Indicators
Dynamic Network Value to Transactions Ratio by aamonkey
Bitcoin is the name of a payment network as well as the currency used on that network and the smallest division of that currency is the satoshi. This is compared to the dollar, which circulates around the world in the SWIFT system with the smallest division that most people use is the cent.
The Network Value Transaction ratio represents the cryptocurrency’s network value (which is its current market capitalization) and the transaction volume that’s transmitted through Bitcoin’s blockchain over a period of 24 hours. In other words, how much is money moving around compared to cost of bitcoin. It is closely related to the idea of the velocity of money. All things being equal when the velocity of money picks up things get expensive.
The indicator is simple to understand. When price is in the green the smart money looks to accumulate/absorb bitcoin and other cryptos and when the NVT moves to the red or even outside the red smart money looks to sell. This is time frame dependent. Right now we are quite hot on the 3 day time frame but no where near where I would be concerned on the weekly.
This circumstance makes it very painful to hold leveraged longs but also difficult to go short because that is against the larger trend. In other words, it is very easy to lose money here.
Average Directional Index D+ and D-
The ADX quite simply tells you how strong a move is. It uses a true range calculation to measure a D+ that compares previous high to one another. When you have higher highs the D+ in green goes up. The True Range Calculation also compares lows and when the lows are lower the D- goes up in red. When the green line is above the red line the trend is bullish and the higher it is above the red line the more bullish things are. When the red line is above the green line price is trending down.
When they cross it indicates neutrality, or in other words, price has moved sideways long enough that the positive and negative price action neutralized one another. It is possible for the D- and D+ to braid and cause a lot of damage to traders so the indicator is best used as part of a collection of indicators or to confirm a chart formation breakout.
Here the D+ is showing hidden bearish divergence. The trend is exhausting and we can se the D- is poised to begin swinging upward.
Relative Strength Index
This is one of the fundamental indicators for most traders. It compares average gains to average losses and when the average gains are more than the average losses price goes up. When the RSI is falling but price is still going up it is a sign that reversal is near.
Technical Analysis
The divergences are pretty easy to see and I am confident that there is a great dip buying opportunity brewing. Where the low is going to be is hard to say. How long it will take is also very difficult to determine. To make it easy for me, I will look to buy again when the NVT is green again on the 3 day. Should help me stay patient.
A 25% drop is very do able at this point. It would be price returning to a trendline that helped set up this uptrend. I hope to see some hidden bullish divergence when this bases out, which means I would want the RSI, MACD, etc, to be lower than then when this uptrend began. I don’t think the gaussain channel or the ketner will confine price action during this dip.
This weakness in bitcoin puts a lot of other long trades at serious risk. It is very hard for other cryptos to stay strong If you are holding be prepared for the value to go down. If you are margined be prepared to have your stop strategy tested.
Fundamental Analysis (technical analysis on the dollar)
DXY looks like it has caught support on both the Gaussian and Keltner channels and has set a double bottom. This sets up some W targeting with a fib draw from the low to the high of the bridge of the W. That target is in a lot of as it is in the micro bull trap of the previous high and against the trend line that was previous support and most likely resistance when tested again.
This fits my larger view on the dollar that it will have to retest its previous wedge resistance as support. This means something big is coming for the dollar and therefore the globe. I wonder what kind of dreadful evens will feed into the dollar decline. This zigzagging of the dollar is going to make dollar alternatives go crazy.
My Realistic worst case scenario for BTC
I have been operating under the assumption the low is in. If not, the easiest target to set is back to 10k. While I don’t expect it to happen it is the easiest way my analysis has been wrong and one I have to prepare for.
Conclusion
These are trying economic times. Trading discipline are going to be key as the dollar whipsaws around and people try to position themselves long, short and sideways. This is not the time to be opening trades without a good entry system and a good system to take profit and set stop losses.
注释
Lowering the time frame there is a are a couple of structures that could be developing. The first would be a head and shoulders that still needs a final right shoulder break of the neckline and the next would be the broadening wedge. The 9 seasons rainbow shows yellow on the two lowest timeframes. The 9SR is proprietary so I can't tell you what comprises that signal but I have learned that ignoring it is dangerous, especially with a bearish structure developing.注释
Time wait and evaluate.
注释
Price slipped the EMA ribbon on the daily and so far the low is about 1.2% away from a cliff. With head and shoulders there is often a return move to the neckline but of course that is not always the case.
注释
Its been a month since my original idea and so far it has been a good call. Price is down about 10 percent and I think the move still has a lot to go. Lots of traders have been churned out due to the sideways motion and while Bitcoin looks relatively stable alts have been punished. Some coins moved over 30% to the downside and while you may not see how the original post helps predict pull backs in alts I am confident it did.Bitcoin, as the benchmark for the crypto market, overheated on this time frame. Therefore bitcoin and the crypto market was due for a correction. I am still waiting for lower prices. As I mentioned higher, I expect some dollar strength to show up and do further damage to market stability.
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