Aug 29

8月30日

Overview:
The SP500 experienced another day of indecisiveness. However, for the first time during this established range, it closed in red for two consecutive days. QQQ followed a similar pattern. Both indices showed higher volume than the previous day, confirming the downtrend. Buckle up for the opening price on September 3rd (Monday is Labor Day in the US).

GDP growth came in strong at 3%. Does this seem like a shrinking economy? Could there be a recession if the Fed doesn’t pour gasoline on this fire? It’s starting to look like 2 rate cuts instead of 4 by the end of the year.

BTC ETF has been selling for three consecutive days—on the 27th, 28th, and 29th. On the 27th, we saw a big red candle, but the market was able to absorb all that selling pressure without dropping lower. However, it's a bearish sign that even at the relatively low price point of 60k, the ETF crowd doesn't seem confident in BTCUSD

ETH ETF trading was halted, with no buying or selling activity. Are they bracing for a big move, or is this the bottom?

W: Old range, nothing new. Bearish.

D: On Thursday, bulls tried to push it higher and correct the crash that occurred on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. However, we are holding the range support, and the recent dip resulted in higher lows and higher highs. Mildly bullish.

4h: Sitting at the point of control line (from volume profile). It wants to break above the BB MA for the second time this week. Mildly bullish.

1h: Broke above BB MA, with an upper target of 60.05k. Bullish.

Alts relative to BTC: For many ALTs ( SOLUSD, NEARUSD , ARUSD, RNDRUSD ), Thursday was a red day, creating a divergence with BTC. This is bearish for the overall crypto market. If we have three days of the market going down, and on the fourth, BTC is recovering, we want ALTs to recover with it, not continue the sell-off.

Bull case: We are holding our levels strongly, and more accumulation is happening at this level. The Cumulative Volume Data (CVD) indicator suggests that even with more aggressive sellers present, the price is still able to rise, meaning some market participants are buying up those sell orders.

Bear case: Same as yesterday—the bulls are weak, and the price continues to revisit the support level until it’s broken.

Fear and greed index: 46.45. No change.

Prediction: Short-term zigzag, long-term bearish.

Opportunities, at W, 4h divergences of major alts: With BTC not knowing where to go, any ALTs technical analysis will be useless. Just like our previous prediction of APTUSD correction due to the MACD divergence and head-and-shoulders pattern didn’t play out, and it still bounces off the weekly resistance level.