Pitchfork Still Holding, Looking for Support Today at 50 Day

2018年8月2日

I'm liking how this chart is looking for BTCUSD. Before we get into it, the 50 Day, the most important for today, is yellow, the 200 purple, and the 21 blue.



Yesterday (8/1) we were watching to see if BTC would hold above the green zone of the pitchfork and confirm this potential new trend, and thus far that is exactly what we are doing. The wicks of the candles have dipped below the green, but the bodies are staying nicely above. In addition, the downward momentum that could have been set into motion on 7/31 seems to be slowing down, faltering at the 50 Day. You can see that this indicator was also where we found some resistance 7/18 - 7/22, and as it goes, previous resistance often becomes new support. These points are certainly boosting my confidence, but let's consider our situation if we don't see a green day here shortly.

If we see a dip below the green zone, we are then looking to the 21 Day for support. As BTCUSD is attempting to get a proper rally going, it is quite important that we hold above this level and maintain our momentum. A drop below this indicator would be a rather bearish omen and could have the potential to disrupt the market's newfound confidence, but even if that is where we find ourselves, we still have a couple points to look to before the ship sinks (hopefully without your bags still on it).

The blue zone may provide a nice line of defense against the bears, but our pitchfork here is still in its infancy, and repeated failures to find stability around the green could prove to break it. That being said, the third time is often the charm in markets, as may be the case for this very rally. A much more solid line of support after the 21 Day would be the 200 Day, which we managed to pull above with the big jump on 7/17. If our previous two lines are broken, this is where we must stand if we want the bulls to keep running.

With all that in mind, I am still rather bullish on BTCUSD, both in the short-term and over the coming months. Always remember, corrections are healthy and necessary to keep feeding the bulls. Without the red days, where we cool off a little and rest, we wouldn't have the energy to keep on rallying.

Thanks for reading, stay smart out there everyone

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Dillon Seals