#BTC - How to trade todays ISM Services PMI
Technicals
Trip back to $60,600 (probably tbh far enough to fill the CME gap at $60,400 - they usually get 'close' but not exact) following the high Job numbers yesterday as expected (tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/s4xMsWrp-BTC-JOLTs-Data-How-to-Trade).
Next move will be determined by the ISM Services PMI and then the FOMC later today.
63.2k looks like local resistance so if we get a good PMI read I'd expect we move up to test this price.
If we get a poor PMI read then I see us testing the very bottom of our support zone 60k.
Macro
ISM Services PMI-
ISM Services drop at 3pm (BST). Like JOLTS data yesterday I'd expect that this will give the market direction.
The way this works is managers responsible for purchasing in US companies are surveyed to tell how much they plan to invest in the coming month.
This means that the data has a big impact because it's saying what is going to happen, not what has happened.
A reading of 50 means neutral, below 50 means the economy is in decline. A reading above 50 illustrates growth.
A reading below 50 indicating decline means that the FED should reduce rates to help re-stimulate growth, and a reading above 50 means growth and reduces the need for FED rate cuts.
I've illustarted the likely moves again on the chart - apologies that it looks almost identical to the JOLTS chart yesterday!
PMI Services ISM = 52.5 Priced In
PMI Services ISM <52.5 - Bullish (Target 63.2k)
PMI Services ISM >52.5 - Bearish (Target 60k)
FOMC
7pm (BST). The FED explain their current thinking. It can cause volatility but they are usually pretty boring. In fact the speech is pretty much designed to not move the market.
The key thing to listen out for is talk of rate cuts. Rate cuts possible sooner is bullish. Rates higher for longer is bearish.
Trip back to $60,600 (probably tbh far enough to fill the CME gap at $60,400 - they usually get 'close' but not exact) following the high Job numbers yesterday as expected (tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/s4xMsWrp-BTC-JOLTs-Data-How-to-Trade).
Next move will be determined by the ISM Services PMI and then the FOMC later today.
63.2k looks like local resistance so if we get a good PMI read I'd expect we move up to test this price.
If we get a poor PMI read then I see us testing the very bottom of our support zone 60k.
Macro
ISM Services PMI-
ISM Services drop at 3pm (BST). Like JOLTS data yesterday I'd expect that this will give the market direction.
The way this works is managers responsible for purchasing in US companies are surveyed to tell how much they plan to invest in the coming month.
This means that the data has a big impact because it's saying what is going to happen, not what has happened.
A reading of 50 means neutral, below 50 means the economy is in decline. A reading above 50 illustrates growth.
A reading below 50 indicating decline means that the FED should reduce rates to help re-stimulate growth, and a reading above 50 means growth and reduces the need for FED rate cuts.
I've illustarted the likely moves again on the chart - apologies that it looks almost identical to the JOLTS chart yesterday!
PMI Services ISM = 52.5 Priced In
PMI Services ISM <52.5 - Bullish (Target 63.2k)
PMI Services ISM >52.5 - Bearish (Target 60k)
FOMC
7pm (BST). The FED explain their current thinking. It can cause volatility but they are usually pretty boring. In fact the speech is pretty much designed to not move the market.
The key thing to listen out for is talk of rate cuts. Rate cuts possible sooner is bullish. Rates higher for longer is bearish.
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