Bitcoin: Setup, Better Price But Wait?

2021年5月16日

Buy signal is developing at the moment but requires confirmation which means we have to wait for the close of the candle. The 48K to 50K AREA is a high probability support zone which offers attractive reward/risk in terms of our LONG only swing trade strategy.

Bitcoin gyrated between 53K and 59K for weeks, and while others were OVER reacting to the noise, I kept pointing out the lack of advantage in terms of probability in light of a much less attractive reward vs. the potential risk. Bitcoin could have gone higher or lower randomly, and what do we get in the middle of it? Elon Musk rejects Bitcoin. No chart, no magic oscillator or any 90% win rate strategy would've have told you this catalyst was coming. The best you could've have done was to be prepared in terms of the potential RISK.

About PATIENCE:

When Bitcoin tested the 48K area, and established the first bullish pin bar, I get a lot of questions: is NOW a good time to buy? After a dramatic move (the large bearish candle) it is important to recognize that the bearish momentum from that move MAY still be in play and a single reversal candle is not enough to justify taking a risk.

WAITING for structure to develop is often the better thing to do, but most people don't want to hear that they have to wait a few more days. Again the typical trader and/or investor is focused on reward, not RISK, which is why any profits they manage to generate (randomly) they give back over time (JUST like being at the casino!).

The structure that we PATIENTLY waited for is now present. Upon the close of the current candle, price needs to break above 48,850 and a new buy signal will be in effect. The 48K to 50K area offers MUCH better reward/risk and probability compared to 55K or 60K.

If you think about it, waiting for the right setup is technically not a very hard thing to do, ALL you have to do is NOTHING. Yet, most people are not able to wait. That is human nature. I would be fooling myself if I thought I could write an article that will change the way we are all wired, but I can at least make you aware of where the problem is.

I recently came across a self help "guru" on Youtube and he claimed to be an expert in human behavior. He mentioned that our brain is hard wired to maintain safety, and even though I don't know if this is technically true, I definitely believe it. It certainly makes sense in light of how most traders and investors react in the market place where EVERYTHING is uncertain and NOTHING is safe.

To improve and/or have a positive experience in the market, you need to get over yourself. It took me more than 10 years to put this into practice which requires a constant effort. If this game were about the "top 3 magical setups", the "90% win rate system", the "magical oscillator" or being hyper informed by all the "news", then most traders would be consistently successful and there would be little profit potential in the market.

That is why I constantly remind my followers: LISTEN TO PRICE NOT PEOPLE.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis and perspective. I hope you found it helpful.