BTC short-term analysis

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We've had a strong year in the crypto market, with BTC and many major cryptocurrencies reclaiming their pre-FTX crash levels from May 2022.

Looking at the weekly timeframe, BTC seems to be encountering significant resistance from a long-term trendline and the Fib 0.5 (regular scale). Another crucial signal to watch is the USDT Dominance (USDT.D), shown in the screenshot below, which inversely correlates with BTC. A bounce in USDT.D at support typically signals a potential downturn in BTC price.

However, historical data indicates a positive correlation between BTC's performance in December and November (as depicted in the chart). So, I'm anticipating a green close for this month, above $38,000 but may not reaching 50000s.

Precisely, in my opinion, it's likely that BTC might range within a 10% range between $41,000 and $45,000 until month-end.

Considering this information, my preferred short-term scenario is outlined in the chart. What do you predict for the future of BTC, both by the year's end and in the long term?

USDT.D view:

Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on my personnal views and is not a financial advice. Risk is under your control.

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As expected, BTC started to drop. It's now between the two support level. I'm waiting for BTC to be at the lower support for potential LONGs

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BTC has dropped to the second support (as my thought) and is boucing from it

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The first part of my prefered scenario (as in chart) happenned sonner than I expect but I'm prepared for this. BTC is now bouncing from the $41000 areas.
The next target is the Weekly trendline $45000 area. We should really pay attention because rejection would happen at $45000.

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My plan is to get out/take most profit of current (short-term) Longs and looking for Short opportunities if BTC goes to the resistance trendlines

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Altcoins become very weak. With the current situation of BTC (breaking the 4H trendline), I think that it would revisit $40000 level. I'll wait for reaction at this level with a preference for a "bounce" scenario.

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BTC bounces again from the lower local support. My target is still the trendline level (around $45000-$46000)

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My thought is still the same: BTC would reach $46000 before a first real correction (~10% or more) since weeks. In my opinion, the current move will break the ascending triangle and make BTC go higher to touch the weekly and 2D trendlines. Then correction will happen. So secure your current trades and portfolio and don't be FOMO.

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The triangle was broken down, not broken up as expected. It seems that the retest of the broken trendline is ongoing. If successful, i'll wait for price to be at the support at EMA50D

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BTC did a false break-down.
It's now heading the final target of this analysis: the trendlines (weekly and 2-D).
I'll pay attention on $46500-$47000 level.

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It's important to keep in mind that FOMO & news would push BTC price to $48500 area in lower TFs.

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The analysis ended here because target was reached finally. Technically, prices are at strong resistances (trendlines, horizontal levels...) but ETF news coming would be very bullish.
Better wait to see which side BTC would go when things are calm down.