Will Bitcoin go as low as $800 - $1200?

2018年12月15日

Hello all, it's been a while without updates because nothing interesting has happened with the Bitcoin market lately. Been holding my short for four days now from 3408.


We are currently at 5 of 13 from this TD countdown setup. Lets get my 2800 target rolling soon and 1.2k for full despair.

Open interest is very low on Bitmex with short positions dominating over longs. Meanwhile Bitfinex is accumulating margin longs which will likely be liquidated on the upcoming dump


Hourly has a bullish divergence forming, so we could see a bounce to retest the broken level at 3200. We should get a bounce here after completing wave 5 of this recent swing.


After this bounce, we should get another ~350 point drop from this current bounce (which is wave 4 in this picture), targeting down to 2782-2860 minimum followed by a larger bounce to run stops at 3k+ (which should get sold down quickly in my opinion).

I have alarms set at 2950, so I can cover and reshort higher on the panic sell down when 3k level breaks. I am targeting as low as 2782 for this cover because I am expecting around a 400-500 point bounce once we get this panic drop. I may be looking to long this as well if we take out stops at 2500 (low fill orders only).

This is all I will be looking out for as of now. The current volume and volatility is not enough to make my 1minute chart swings. I do not plan on accumulating long-term long positions until we hit the $800 - $1200 area (if we look at weekly chart, it's kind of inevitable that we will reach 1200 given that the current daily wave that we are on is still wave 3. This target is supported by the volume gaps as well). Have fun trading traders :)

2018年12月15日

注释

I'll be looking to catch the bottom of this orderblock around 2500, I think we could see a panic down to this high volume node here. There's actually very strong confluence here because there are multiple ways of drawing weekly orderblock levels here depending if you use the support OB or resistance OB or even mid-level OB. The one I have drawn is the resistance OB which has the most confluence in line with the other ways of drawing OB levels. A bounce to 3k - 3.5k is not out of the picture once we tap this level though. But target is 3k.

2018年12月17日

注释

So far this expanded flat correction looks good on this ABC correction of wave 4. This will target us at 2910.34 for wave 5.

If wave 5 is slow like this entire five-wave structure has been, there will be a very violent bounce at the end of wave 5, so make sure to keep an eye out for the bounce and to take profits on shorts. I will be looking to long when I see an influx of high volume coming in as well. The recent altcoin pump and increase of almost 60mm OI (open interest) on Bitmex, along with Bitfinex is a good indicator to support the thesis of this upcoming violent bounce. Cheers and Happy December all :)

2018年12月17日

注释

It is best to focus on small targets first. We got rejected off the 3429 EQ as expected. If we break above that then the top of the range of 3640 is where we will likely see resistance. However stops are placed at that level, so expect to see a wick towards 3700.


Taking the EQ of this entire current leg down would put us at 3771 tops if we continue this downtrend.


Taking the EQ of the previous leg up and the current leg down and using that to form an orderblock resistance area would give us 3771 - 3935 resistance. Closing any H4 candle above 3853 average of that OB range would signal us for much higher towards the weekly orderblock of 4160 - 4610.