BTCUSD going for the formation of BAT be ready for more drop
1st of all I would like to show you the below chart that I posted on 8th of June. Where I predicted that the price action is going to move more down to complete the final leg of Gartley pattern. And that move was expected from $9317 up to $9015. And so far the price action has been retraced and completed the leg of Gartley.
The Bitcoin is going for BAT formation:
Now there is more possibility that the price action will go for the Bat pattern. Because the signals are turning more bearish. Therefore I'm just ignoring some extra spike and taking the A to B leg up to 0.50 Fib retracement level. Now as per Fiboancci sequence of BAT the final leg is expected to be retraced from $9,015 upto $8840. This is the potential reversal zone of this BAT pattern.
But we should use this potential reversal zone strictly as stop laws point. Because once it will be broken down then the price action may go for the formation of bullish Butterfly pattern and that can go upto $75. If I will see more strong bullish signals I will definitely post that pattern as well.
Different support and resistance level:
Now if we watch the different support and resistance levels then the price action recently was trying to breakout the $10,000 resistance level. And this 10K level is a very strong resistance as it is not broken out since October 2019. Now after being rejected from this resistance level the price action also has broken down the previous support of $ $9,500 and now we have the next support at $8,800 and the price action is going to retest that support as well.
Up channel, moon phases and SMAs:
Since after the mid of March 2020 the price action started the formation of an up channel and it was moving in this channel very well. And while moving within this pattern the price action broke out the simple moving averages with the time period of 25, 50, 100 and 200. At this time the price action has almost broken down the 25 simple moving average and now it is retesting the 50 simple moving average support and the channel support is almost broken down as well. I've also placed the moon phases indicator on this chart. That is showing that the altitude of new full moon was not so high and it was appeared at the resistance of the channel. While the dark moon appeared below the support of this channel and there was a big distance between the support and the new dark moon. Therefore there was a possibility that the price action may reach up to this dark moon and in order to reach at this level the price action needs to break down the support of the channel and the price line has done it.
The support of pennant is likely to break down soon:
On daily chart after the formation of rising wedge pattern recently the price action formed a bullish pennant. While moving within previous rising wedge pattern we received clear signals for the breakout. For example, the RSI was completely in uptrend that was a major bullish signal and the stochastic also gave the bull cross from the oversold zone. While moving within current bullish pennant the price RSI was completely in downtrend. And whenever the price action moves in opposite direction of the trend of RSI eventually it follows the direction of the trend of RSI. And now the price action is following this rule.
A big symmetrical triangle and SMAs supports:
Now if we switch to the long term weekly chart. Then the price action has formed a very big multi years based symmetrical triangle since 2017. And the resistance of this triangle has become a very strong rejection line for the price action of the leading cryptocurrency. This time the price line of BTC was struggling to break out this rejection line but unfortunately it is failed to have break out this time and after being rejected it is moving down. Now if we watch the simple moving averages supports on this weekly chart then we have the 50 simple moving average immediate support that is almost at $8,800 then we have the 25 simple moving every support than 100 and at last we have 200 simple moving average support at $6,000 that is at the same level that we have the support of this big symmetrical triangle.
Conclusion:
On short and midterm chart all signals are turning bearish and the move between $9,000 to $8800 as Fibonacci sequence of bullish BAT pattern is confirmed. The further downward move depends on the breakdown of potential reversal zone of BAT pattern and 50 simple moving average of weekly chart that is at $8800.
The Bitcoin is going for BAT formation:
Now there is more possibility that the price action will go for the Bat pattern. Because the signals are turning more bearish. Therefore I'm just ignoring some extra spike and taking the A to B leg up to 0.50 Fib retracement level. Now as per Fiboancci sequence of BAT the final leg is expected to be retraced from $9,015 upto $8840. This is the potential reversal zone of this BAT pattern.
But we should use this potential reversal zone strictly as stop laws point. Because once it will be broken down then the price action may go for the formation of bullish Butterfly pattern and that can go upto $75. If I will see more strong bullish signals I will definitely post that pattern as well.
Different support and resistance level:
Now if we watch the different support and resistance levels then the price action recently was trying to breakout the $10,000 resistance level. And this 10K level is a very strong resistance as it is not broken out since October 2019. Now after being rejected from this resistance level the price action also has broken down the previous support of $ $9,500 and now we have the next support at $8,800 and the price action is going to retest that support as well.
Up channel, moon phases and SMAs:
Since after the mid of March 2020 the price action started the formation of an up channel and it was moving in this channel very well. And while moving within this pattern the price action broke out the simple moving averages with the time period of 25, 50, 100 and 200. At this time the price action has almost broken down the 25 simple moving average and now it is retesting the 50 simple moving average support and the channel support is almost broken down as well. I've also placed the moon phases indicator on this chart. That is showing that the altitude of new full moon was not so high and it was appeared at the resistance of the channel. While the dark moon appeared below the support of this channel and there was a big distance between the support and the new dark moon. Therefore there was a possibility that the price action may reach up to this dark moon and in order to reach at this level the price action needs to break down the support of the channel and the price line has done it.
The support of pennant is likely to break down soon:
On daily chart after the formation of rising wedge pattern recently the price action formed a bullish pennant. While moving within previous rising wedge pattern we received clear signals for the breakout. For example, the RSI was completely in uptrend that was a major bullish signal and the stochastic also gave the bull cross from the oversold zone. While moving within current bullish pennant the price RSI was completely in downtrend. And whenever the price action moves in opposite direction of the trend of RSI eventually it follows the direction of the trend of RSI. And now the price action is following this rule.
A big symmetrical triangle and SMAs supports:
Now if we switch to the long term weekly chart. Then the price action has formed a very big multi years based symmetrical triangle since 2017. And the resistance of this triangle has become a very strong rejection line for the price action of the leading cryptocurrency. This time the price line of BTC was struggling to break out this rejection line but unfortunately it is failed to have break out this time and after being rejected it is moving down. Now if we watch the simple moving averages supports on this weekly chart then we have the 50 simple moving average immediate support that is almost at $8,800 then we have the 25 simple moving every support than 100 and at last we have 200 simple moving average support at $6,000 that is at the same level that we have the support of this big symmetrical triangle.
Conclusion:
On short and midterm chart all signals are turning bearish and the move between $9,000 to $8800 as Fibonacci sequence of bullish BAT pattern is confirmed. The further downward move depends on the breakdown of potential reversal zone of BAT pattern and 50 simple moving average of weekly chart that is at $8800.
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