Change in Macro, Breakout with Confirmation
Keep in mind this is on the weekly/larger time-scale and the swings and differences can be in the hundreds if not thousands. But while others are gearing up to be bearish right now I'd like to give this bullish outlook and confirm some historical changes that have occurred and what we are looking for next.
#1 breaking above the long-term supply-line/resistance from ATH (diagonal red) which I've now made as a diagonal green to illustrate it as a DEMAND LINE (most recently backtested and confirmed when price action occurred at the bottom of 10,000.
#2 The breakout with confirmation (Backtesting the breakout as support) of the large Bulkowski pattern (White Pattern Shape from July 2019 to Presnt Day) that started after the second half of 2019 (Broadening-Formations, Right Angled and Descending). Horizontal Top with lower lows following a down-sloping trend line. Breakout is upward.
The next thing we'd like to see is a breakout with confirmation above 11,463 (historical long-term horizontal resistance - Orange Dashed Line). The full measured move of this pattern is LARGE, but we can conservatively aim for 16k as we know there is historical resistance at that area.
Keep in mind, no one is saying to enter the trade right here (although today we had a Bullish reversal candle, and the RSI is showing divergence on the 4hr) as well as a bullish cross (between 21 and 55) and we are working towards a golden cross (55 and 200 MA) - which is technically just undoing the Deathcross that occurred as the official Golden Cross was created in May 2020. If things continue, this will confirm the recent moves as a fakeout/shakeout, or pullback during our bullish run. Also on the weekly you can see it as a CONFIRMATION of our breakout from the Descending Broadening Wedge (as we merely BACKTESTED the breakout).
#1 breaking above the long-term supply-line/resistance from ATH (diagonal red) which I've now made as a diagonal green to illustrate it as a DEMAND LINE (most recently backtested and confirmed when price action occurred at the bottom of 10,000.
#2 The breakout with confirmation (Backtesting the breakout as support) of the large Bulkowski pattern (White Pattern Shape from July 2019 to Presnt Day) that started after the second half of 2019 (Broadening-Formations, Right Angled and Descending). Horizontal Top with lower lows following a down-sloping trend line. Breakout is upward.
The next thing we'd like to see is a breakout with confirmation above 11,463 (historical long-term horizontal resistance - Orange Dashed Line). The full measured move of this pattern is LARGE, but we can conservatively aim for 16k as we know there is historical resistance at that area.
Keep in mind, no one is saying to enter the trade right here (although today we had a Bullish reversal candle, and the RSI is showing divergence on the 4hr) as well as a bullish cross (between 21 and 55) and we are working towards a golden cross (55 and 200 MA) - which is technically just undoing the Deathcross that occurred as the official Golden Cross was created in May 2020. If things continue, this will confirm the recent moves as a fakeout/shakeout, or pullback during our bullish run. Also on the weekly you can see it as a CONFIRMATION of our breakout from the Descending Broadening Wedge (as we merely BACKTESTED the breakout).
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