XBTFX

Bitcoin: a short reversal ahead?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币
For the last four weeks the ETF frenzy was pushing prices of the crypto coins to the upside, moving in a highly overbought market. The reversal point was strongly indicated, however, it was a question of its exact timing. Markets are becoming a bit exhausted on the stories about first approved BTC ETF, considering that it still continues to miss realization and final approval by the SEC. At the same time, officially released inflation figures for October are showing clearly that inflation in the US is slowing down for the last several months, in which sense, the attention of investors was turned toward the potential for Fed`s so-called “pivoting”. Current market expectations are that the Fed will start to cut interest rates somewhere during the course of the next year, regardless of the fact that Fed officials are still not mentioning such a move.

At the beginning of the previous week, there was again posted news about BlackRock`s filing for the ETH ETF. It should be noted that BlackRock did not comment on any of such news, in which sense, its confirmation is missing. Nevertheless, the market is always moving in a manner buy rumor - sell fact, so the price of BTC was pushed again to the upside where resistance at $38K has been tested. There has not been enough market strength to push the price further, so the price reverted a bit to the downside and level of $36.6K, where BTC is finishing the week. The moving average of 50 days continues to diverge from its MA200 counterpart, after the two lines created a so-called “golden cross” three weeks ago.

For the last three weeks BTC was moving within a strongly overbought market. The start of a short reversal was only a question of a moment, but in a highly hyped market, it might come with a short delay, as it was with the BTC during the previous period. As the resistance line at $38K has been tested, and without strength to break this line, the market showed its exhaustion. In this sense, there is some probability that $38K will be tested for one more time in the week ahead, however, the most probable move of BTC will be toward the downside. The level of $35K is the next support line, with higher probability that it might be tested in a week ahead.

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