BTCUSD: Update and forecast/guidelines
已更新
On chart we have conflicting signals. It seems that the bears decided to book profits and this ignited a short squeeze rally, or at least that is what logic implies.
Considering multiple variables, we can determine with a high degree of certainty that Bitcoin is set to rally off this juncture, as long as it remains above 228.04. We can expect realistically to retest the 66 period daily EMA, but the time at mode target aims higher, to the 268.64 mark.
Keep in mind we still have a valid downtrend signal, that despite having reached its target, has time left to expire.
Time at mode signal expirations usually show reactions, which normally form strong moves against the signal's direction.
These can have lasting effects, or merely be pullbacks, but I've witnessed many occasions where this is true. I'd rate it very highly in probabilistic terms, based on my almost 2 years of experience since I've learned this method.
This is of particular significance when there are fundamental events nearing the expiration dates. I wouldn't bother with fundamentals, regarding Bitcoin in general, since it obeys the time at mode signals so well, but September is a huge month for many reasons, and one of them is the possibility of a rate hike for the dollar next week.
I'm holding both BTC and ETH, on a 70/30% basis, but I'll try to convert most of the BTC to Euros this week as protection for the conflicting signal enviroment. If you're a BTC holder, consider exchanging some of your BTC (or dollars!) to either Yen or Euros (maybe 50/50). It's possible that we see a sharp move, and volatility might make us incurr in losses if we are negligent with our assets.
My expectations are of a rising Euro after declining to 1.10+-50 pips, a rising Yen while the stock market collapses this month, which would be accelerated by the Fed's rate hike or even if they don't hike rates!
See my charts on related ideas for more information on this macro picture.
Going back to Bitcoin, in the boon of the Bitcoin XT/fork-no fork situation, it's highly likely to see volatility come back, 2011 style, so, brace yourselves, it's going to be a shakey ride!
Have a nice weekend, but most of all good luck!
Ivan.
Considering multiple variables, we can determine with a high degree of certainty that Bitcoin is set to rally off this juncture, as long as it remains above 228.04. We can expect realistically to retest the 66 period daily EMA, but the time at mode target aims higher, to the 268.64 mark.
Keep in mind we still have a valid downtrend signal, that despite having reached its target, has time left to expire.
Time at mode signal expirations usually show reactions, which normally form strong moves against the signal's direction.
These can have lasting effects, or merely be pullbacks, but I've witnessed many occasions where this is true. I'd rate it very highly in probabilistic terms, based on my almost 2 years of experience since I've learned this method.
This is of particular significance when there are fundamental events nearing the expiration dates. I wouldn't bother with fundamentals, regarding Bitcoin in general, since it obeys the time at mode signals so well, but September is a huge month for many reasons, and one of them is the possibility of a rate hike for the dollar next week.
I'm holding both BTC and ETH, on a 70/30% basis, but I'll try to convert most of the BTC to Euros this week as protection for the conflicting signal enviroment. If you're a BTC holder, consider exchanging some of your BTC (or dollars!) to either Yen or Euros (maybe 50/50). It's possible that we see a sharp move, and volatility might make us incurr in losses if we are negligent with our assets.
My expectations are of a rising Euro after declining to 1.10+-50 pips, a rising Yen while the stock market collapses this month, which would be accelerated by the Fed's rate hike or even if they don't hike rates!
See my charts on related ideas for more information on this macro picture.
Going back to Bitcoin, in the boon of the Bitcoin XT/fork-no fork situation, it's highly likely to see volatility come back, 2011 style, so, brace yourselves, it's going to be a shakey ride!
Have a nice weekend, but most of all good luck!
Ivan.
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