BTC analysis 6M first of 2022

已更新

Hi, today i do an analysis for long term trader who is invester or trading with long time style by 6 month candle stich chart pattern.

The first: look at the candle 1,2,3 from 1/jun/2020 to 1/jun 2021

That combination of 3 candles call advance block pattern candlestick .

What is advance block patern?

KEY TAKEAWAYS
An advance block is a three-period candlestick pattern considered to forecast a reversal.
The pattern's success at predicting reversal is barely above random.
Reversals are more prevalent when this pattern occurs in a larger downward trend.

The advance block candlestick pattern has the following four characteristics:

1: The price action has displayed an upward trend or a significant bounce within a downtrend.
2: Three white candles appear that have progressively shorter real bodies.
3: The open of the second and third candles lie within the real body of the previous candles respectively.
4: The upper shadows of the three candles gradually become taller—especially the shadow of the last candle.

This pattern show to us 2 things is:
Price can sideway long time time in range top-bottom candle number 3 (from 29200 to 69000 )or downtrend confirm when price go under the top of candle 1 (29000usd)

- But its usualy dowtrend more than sideway or continue up in my experiences.

Now: We look at volume of trading 2 years ago. Price go HH but volume show LL. That mean BTC is near the current top or made top at 69000 actually

So, if BTC down under 29000k again which level we should buy?

I think the zone 3x is cheap price for BTC
23-27 we should buy
17k zone is fire sale
and the last 10.000 to 14000usd is like the price 3-5k of BTC in 2019 for new run up cirle with new target is 100.000usd and 160.000usd in the end of 2022 to 2024.

- In case BTC not go under 29000usd. We trading in range on candle number 3 until price break out.

- But keep in mind that this pattern will only be more effective in a downtrend when we are in an uptrend, the uptrend is still more likely to happen. So wait for the conditions to happen and trading will be a safe choice for you

注释

6 months ago when BTC was in the 40k region we had a long term update every 6 months for BTC.

Today 1/7 we continue to update new.

As you can see, the candlestick pattern I set up has fallen in the direction. We also have a large sell order from 36-40k to 24 and 17k. (Probably few of you can keep the order, even though you have analyzed it).

Rounding 2 years, this is the first 6 months of turning to a bearish pattern. With this bearish pattern, it shows a continuing decline and normally it will have to return to the 11-14k zone, which is the equilibrium point of 2 years ago. Sometimes it doesn't come, because you know. Nothing is certain.

So how do we trade in the last 6 months of the year?

You notice on the picture there are areas from the top down

1: 53-57
2: 28-35
3: 11-14

With these 3 regions, we have 3 cases.

C1: The price drops to 11-14 always, then it will move sideways in a certain area to create a new ATH momentum in the next time.

C2: The price moved to the 28-35 area but was pushed down => continued to 11-14 to prepare for a new cycle

C3: Price breaks through 35 to reach 53-57 and then returns to 11-14 to continue a new cycle.

So after each month, you need to pay attention to what region it is located in so that we can make a reasonable decision. Good luck with your trading.

注释

Do you think BTC will up to 100k this year?

交易开始

89K and still continues up