Bitcoin; historical analysis
In this post, Bitcoin's past behavior, including impulse and correction waves, is analyzed to forecast what could happen in the future. So, let's jump to the main point.
The first Bitcoin move (including the upward and correction waves) lasted much shorter due to initial acceptance. If we do not take into account Bitcoin's first move, the next three major moves, impulse, and correction, have behaved almost very similarly to each other in terms of duration. Especially, the two previous waves; third and fourth. Both waves lasted for 205 weeks, in which, the upward wave lasted for 152 weeks and correction waves lasted for 53 weeks. So, if the same behavior is to be repeated in the future, the two horizontal lines (green and red) are possible endpoint targets for Bitcoin's fifth move. Also, some Fib time analysis were done to adjust these two lines.
Another important point is how much each correction wave has lowered the price. The first one: 93.8%, the second and third ones: 83%, and the fourth one: 77.5%. It can be concluded that Bitcoin's correction waves are getting smaller, in terms of value. So, the next correction wave, the fifth one, could either be equal to 77.5% or less. Of course, this issue is far into the future. But it is worth considering.
Moreover, it seems a classic 5-wave impulse wave is unfolding, and currently the final wave 5 is in play. In addition to this, it seems that the angle of each major upward wave of Bitcoin is decreasing at each stage. Based on these assumptions and Fib extension analysis, the yellow rectangle can be a suitable area for the end of the current bullish wave. Let's see what happens.
P.S. See related links below for step-by-step Bitcoin analysis.
The first Bitcoin move (including the upward and correction waves) lasted much shorter due to initial acceptance. If we do not take into account Bitcoin's first move, the next three major moves, impulse, and correction, have behaved almost very similarly to each other in terms of duration. Especially, the two previous waves; third and fourth. Both waves lasted for 205 weeks, in which, the upward wave lasted for 152 weeks and correction waves lasted for 53 weeks. So, if the same behavior is to be repeated in the future, the two horizontal lines (green and red) are possible endpoint targets for Bitcoin's fifth move. Also, some Fib time analysis were done to adjust these two lines.
Another important point is how much each correction wave has lowered the price. The first one: 93.8%, the second and third ones: 83%, and the fourth one: 77.5%. It can be concluded that Bitcoin's correction waves are getting smaller, in terms of value. So, the next correction wave, the fifth one, could either be equal to 77.5% or less. Of course, this issue is far into the future. But it is worth considering.
Moreover, it seems a classic 5-wave impulse wave is unfolding, and currently the final wave 5 is in play. In addition to this, it seems that the angle of each major upward wave of Bitcoin is decreasing at each stage. Based on these assumptions and Fib extension analysis, the yellow rectangle can be a suitable area for the end of the current bullish wave. Let's see what happens.
P.S. See related links below for step-by-step Bitcoin analysis.
评论
There is another historical scenario, albeit small, but worth considering. After the Second and Third major waves ended, Bitcoin's correction made a major local low. Then, on its way up, Bitcoin made a somewhat sharp correction; some call it stop hunting. These two sharp corrections are shown with a yellow hat. The first hat occurred 31 weeks after the second wave's correction ended, and the second hat occurred 64 weeks after the third wave's correction ended, almost double the previous time. So, if this pattern is to be repeated in the current bullish wave in the same way it happened before, it needs to occur 128 weeks after the previous major local low, twice the previous period. As a result, a sharp Bitcoin correction could visit the 43K area. Could this happen? Only time can tell.
Now, as said before, this is a very low-probability scenario. However, it's better to be ready than sorry. Let's see what happens.
评论
Just an update. This scenario is still valid; possible to happen. Also, another possible yellow hat target is added to the chart. Let's see what happens.
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