Bitcoin: Bearish Pin Bar On Weekly.

2021年11月14日

Since the CPI report earlier in the previous week, Bitcoin has printed an outside bar which also established a FAILED high or fake out pattern off of a projected resistance area where probability favored such a scenario. This price action has also printed a bearish pin bar on the weekly chart. What does all this mean for price in the coming week?

Watch the 62K level. IF Bitcoin takes it out, it will confirm the weekly bearish pin bar and broad failed high formation. This is not to be confused with a trend reversal or "bear market" but it does point to a good possibility of Bitcoin revisiting the 57K support.

The 57K support (small blue box) is a high probability location for a bullish reversal to develop. This is where a potential swing trade that offers attractive reward/risk can unfold. This requires price action confirmation and defined risk before taking any action.

What I just described is an ideal scenario. The market can do whatever it wants and we must always be open to infinite possibilities. Which means it is also possible for price to maintain the 62K level, and establish a higher low in which case a retest of the 67K becomes more likely.

There are extreme contrarian signs everywhere, from billboards and outdoor ads in major cities to outrageous titles on Youtube (many "gurus" are paid by alt coin marketing teams and its legal). It is important to understand, if you are NOT an insider, then your purpose is to help them reduce risk and lock in profits as the cycle matures. Most of the long term investors that made any money took big risks and relied on hope and intuition. This same strategy will rob them unless they are savvy enough to recognize the magnitude of risk at current levels.

As retail traders, especially with short term orientation, a personal set of RULES will help to protect capital and manage risk. Think defensively. High quality opportunities are NOT obvious, and usually not promoted or advertised. I trade rules, because I have to guess how the market will act next. News, opinions, and hype offer no actionable value. There is no room for logic in a highly random environment.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.