BITCOIN Is this the temporary Top before the Halving?

2023年11月9日

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has almost hit 37k today, and is getting closed to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (39300), which is a key level for the Bull Cycle. We may be seeing a temporary Top for the market on what can be the start of a few months of sideways trading/ consolidation before the price starts rising again towards Halving 4 (April 2024).

The reasoning behind this assumption is that the Higher Lows trend-line that starts at the bottom of every Cycle, formed medium-term Tops (green circles) in the past two Cycles on February 15 2016 and February 10 2020, as it turned into a Higher Highs Resistance. The price has been at or marginally below the 0.618 Fibonacci level on those occasions. At the same time, the dashed Higher Lows trend-line always supported, with the exception of March 2020 and the COVID crash, which was a market extreme. Every Cycle has so far had its own extreme event below the dashed Higher Lows, whether that was the Bitfinex crash in August 2015 or more recently the FTX crash in November 2022.

Needless to mention that after a certain point, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) always becomes the Bull Cycle's long-term Support, and it appears that we are once more past this level as it successfully held from August until September. It is therefore very encouraging for long-term investors that both the 1W MA50 and the dashed trend-line have most likely turned into the Support levels that will lead to the point that the Parabolic Rally will take off but at the same time, we may be entering a phase where for a few weeks, BTC will trade sideways in a potential new accumulation phase.

So what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to price a temporary top or will it march past the 0.618 towards 45k-50k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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