BTC 2014 vs 2018

已更新

Usefull ideas come if you compare 2014 bitoin crash with current situation. Obviously the situation is diferent but.... price movements and weakness and strenght momentum could be the same. Let's go with this comparation

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In 2014 you can see a 5 Elliot waves (EW) to the bottom. Each of the drop was smoother. Using Williams %R (W%R) momentum indicator, we could see that each of th1 1-3-5 point in the EW, the bearish ones, are related with W%R -80 levels, very oversold.
The Williams %R is a popular indicator because of its ability to signal a market reversal.
The difference between 1-2-3 points and W%R is the temporal length that remains in this area: very short in 1 case, longer in 2, and much much longer in 3. In this case (3) we can trace a V pattern (red line) over W%R with three sharp spikes in the center (1-2-3) that almost did not affect the price.
Curiously the bottom of that crash was reached AFTER this three spikes in the uptrend side of the V pattern, showing the ability if W%R poitting a market reversal. After wave 5, BTC follow a sideways movement and started to climb some months later.
Let's go with 2018 situation...

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Here we have 2018 situation and possible future outcome. As you can see we can mark almost the same 5 EW pattern at almost the same fan and fib. levels. The only difference is that on this ocassion the movements are sharper and faster.
The most interesting thing is that we see almost the same behaviors in Williams (W% R) coinciding with waves 1, 3 and 5 of Elliot. If it was the case, we would have a downward zigzag movement that would reach its lowest point in the area between 3500-4500 at the end of April.
After that we would expect the price moving in the range between 4000 to 6000 since the end of July-August.
Remember that nobody knows the future, although the behaviors in prices and feelings are usually similar for similar assets. In this sense, we can assess whether the BTC of today or the one of 2014 was the same. Personally, I find a big difference in the ALTs ecosystem created around BTC, which could make the price don't drop too much, perhaps in the high 4's or low 5's thousands. However, I leave this fundamental idea to your assessment.

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I will update this post weekly, trying to point the bottom of this downtrend market.

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tradingview.com/chart/8oSh9xlc/

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Remember, look at the initial 2014 chart and do not be fooled by sharp rises in the Williams% R. We had three equal in 2014 without significant impact on the price before the abrupt final fall. If this is the case we could expect the lower part of the descent in mid-May.