Bitcoin Weekly Review
NTC Bitcoin Weekly Analysis for August 10th – August 17th:
TLDR:
• The market structure remains bearish, and the bias remains to the downside.
• Should bitcoin pull back to make a higher low or make a higher high, the bias may change to bullish.
Weekly Chart:
Bitcoin is still moving inside the Descending, Broadening Wedge. Last week, Bitcoin reached a lower low of 49K. After hitting 49K, the initial reaction was excellent, and the price rebounded to 62.5K.
However, the price hasn’t been able to close a candle above the distribution range low of 60.8K so far.
The volume also increased, with the buyers having the upper hand.
Bitcoin’s price also holds above the 200D EMA and the 50W EMA. Both EMAs serve as a divide between a bullish and bearish market. The fact that Bitcoin’s price is above these levels serves as a tailwind for the bitcoin bulls.
The bullish reaction to the 49K level left a 9000$ wick. This wick represents an imbalance in the chart. In my experience, the price tends to revisit these wicks because they represent an imbalance in the chart. If the price pulls back to reclaim at least 50% of the wick and coincidently retests the 50W EMA as support, the bullish case for Bitcoin will strengthen.
Two things can strengthen the bullish case for Bitcoin:
1. A Higher High. This means the Bitcoin price will exceed 70K and invalidate the bearish bias.
2. A Higher Low. This means that Bitcoin will pull back but hold above 49K. Preferably, the price should hold the 50W EMA.
Bias: Bearish until the price makes an HH or a HL.
Figure 1: Bitcoin Weekly Chart.
Daily Chart:
Generally, the daily chart tells the same story as the weekly chart.
The bullish reaction to 49K on August 5th left the chart with an imbalanced wick. Wicks get filled. If, in the next week, Bitcoin retraces to recover the wick and makes a higher low, the bullish case will become stronger.
August 8th also was a remarkable day for Bitcoin, with a 12% surge in price.
The issue is that fast moves, up or down, leave the price without notable support. If Bitcoin rejects the 60.8K resistance level, there is nothing to hold the price until 55K.
Short-Term Bias: If the price holds above the 200D EMA, I expect a continuation of the upside. Initially to 62.5K but higher targets up to and including 68K are not out of the question.
Figure 2: Bitcoin Daily chart
4H Chart:
On the LTF, the M.S. is bullish. The price is making HHs and HLs; if the price holds 59.5K, I expect continuation.
Support: 55K, 59.5K.
Resistance: 60.8K, 62.5K, 64.25K.
Figure 3: Bitcoin 4H Chart.
Gann Bonus:
1. A Gann fan pulled from the ATH to the most recent low highlights Two resistance levels:
A. 61K, the 2/1 angle.
B. 64.8K, the 3/1 angle.
The aspect ratio is 172. The daily TF
Figure 4: Gann Fan Resistance Lines.
2. A Gann fan pulled from the cycle bottom to the ATH highlights two support levels:
A. 53.3K, the 2/1 angle.
B. 41.5K, the 3/1 angle.
The aspect ratio is 856. The weekly TF
Figure 5: Gann Fan Support Lines.
Best wishes
TLDR:
• The market structure remains bearish, and the bias remains to the downside.
• Should bitcoin pull back to make a higher low or make a higher high, the bias may change to bullish.
Weekly Chart:
Bitcoin is still moving inside the Descending, Broadening Wedge. Last week, Bitcoin reached a lower low of 49K. After hitting 49K, the initial reaction was excellent, and the price rebounded to 62.5K.
However, the price hasn’t been able to close a candle above the distribution range low of 60.8K so far.
The volume also increased, with the buyers having the upper hand.
Bitcoin’s price also holds above the 200D EMA and the 50W EMA. Both EMAs serve as a divide between a bullish and bearish market. The fact that Bitcoin’s price is above these levels serves as a tailwind for the bitcoin bulls.
The bullish reaction to the 49K level left a 9000$ wick. This wick represents an imbalance in the chart. In my experience, the price tends to revisit these wicks because they represent an imbalance in the chart. If the price pulls back to reclaim at least 50% of the wick and coincidently retests the 50W EMA as support, the bullish case for Bitcoin will strengthen.
Two things can strengthen the bullish case for Bitcoin:
1. A Higher High. This means the Bitcoin price will exceed 70K and invalidate the bearish bias.
2. A Higher Low. This means that Bitcoin will pull back but hold above 49K. Preferably, the price should hold the 50W EMA.
Bias: Bearish until the price makes an HH or a HL.
Figure 1: Bitcoin Weekly Chart.
Daily Chart:
Generally, the daily chart tells the same story as the weekly chart.
The bullish reaction to 49K on August 5th left the chart with an imbalanced wick. Wicks get filled. If, in the next week, Bitcoin retraces to recover the wick and makes a higher low, the bullish case will become stronger.
August 8th also was a remarkable day for Bitcoin, with a 12% surge in price.
The issue is that fast moves, up or down, leave the price without notable support. If Bitcoin rejects the 60.8K resistance level, there is nothing to hold the price until 55K.
Short-Term Bias: If the price holds above the 200D EMA, I expect a continuation of the upside. Initially to 62.5K but higher targets up to and including 68K are not out of the question.
Figure 2: Bitcoin Daily chart
4H Chart:
On the LTF, the M.S. is bullish. The price is making HHs and HLs; if the price holds 59.5K, I expect continuation.
Support: 55K, 59.5K.
Resistance: 60.8K, 62.5K, 64.25K.
Figure 3: Bitcoin 4H Chart.
Gann Bonus:
1. A Gann fan pulled from the ATH to the most recent low highlights Two resistance levels:
A. 61K, the 2/1 angle.
B. 64.8K, the 3/1 angle.
The aspect ratio is 172. The daily TF
Figure 4: Gann Fan Resistance Lines.
2. A Gann fan pulled from the cycle bottom to the ATH highlights two support levels:
A. 53.3K, the 2/1 angle.
B. 41.5K, the 3/1 angle.
The aspect ratio is 856. The weekly TF
Figure 5: Gann Fan Support Lines.
Best wishes
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