BTC in a decision point.

2018年6月7日

First of all we can see how price reacts to the moving average envelope treating it as a resistance. Last rejection of this area caused a donwtrend that ended with a shooting star pattern (6 june 06:00) followed some candles latter by a counterattack formation (both bullish ).
We should have an eye on a posible rejection on the upper bb bands, the ma enevelope area and the last local high of arounf 3 of june. All at the same area. Low volume suggests bulls wont be able to make price brake this resistances.
Lows are getting higher and highs are not beeing able to set new highs. That means the trading range is shrinking and a bigger move could be on the works.
Aroon seems to agree that trading range is shrinking as no new lows or highs are forming.

So? Where will price go? No idea. I'll look to trendlines , horizontal resistances and lateral volume profile to try to guess possible landing areas. In case we go bearish volume profile and previous lows suggests resistances at around 7400 and 7000. In case we go bullish we should first break the resistance area we are in and easily get to 7900 expecting to land at 8000 to 8300 area.

Thats what 4h chart suggested me so know lets look to a 1D chart and see what we find:

So one big diference in the two charts is what indicators are showing. Rsi has already reversed and is going up slow and steady, just like the price.
Aroon just gave a buy signal after a clear downtrend that lasted pretty much all may. As a warning, note that we could be forming a double top with the last 5 daily candles. We can see two posible landing zones marked with circles based on lows, lateral volume profile, trendline and volume weighted moving average.

So can we draw a conclusion: I dont know. we have mixed pieces of information. What we can suspect is that a move is on the works and in case it goes up we can have some fomo potentially giving an end to the bearish market.

Please feel free to comment an criticize anything you want!