Bitcoin Macro Low

2023年1月8日

My previous analysis based on the historic halving cycles predicted a macro low on the week of Nov 21st 22. It would appear that this played out but not totally in alignment with price prediction. Let's be clear, the global macro economic landscape is not looking rosy with the FED still Hawkishly raising rates, massive tech stocks haemorrhaging up to 70%, huge yield curve inversions, public credit card debt reaching all time highs, the housing market on the brink of collapse and every economic commentator predicting a recession. However, what cannot also be ignored is the historic accuracy of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin since its inception. You will see it either marks off to the week the marco low or identifies clear bullish divergence to start a new upward trend.

The RSI has also formed a huge descending wedge which has been beautifully tested many times within the last year and a half. Only a fool would ignore the ATL of RSI, this descending wedge and the bullish divergence. Is it possible that Digital Strategy group fold, that Gemini can't release client funds, that GreyScale sell some assets, that Mount Gox release BTC in March causing a retest of lows? Absolutely!!! But what should not be ignored is the ability to capitalise on the short term gains and long term deployment of which can be capitalised on through technical analysis.

The DXY is forming a head and shoulders the accumulation/distribution indicator on the monthly has flattened January is often a bullish month in legacy markets.