BTC - may it drop to $34k?
Just as I warned earlier, BTC price has corrected 23% from the top of 58k and currently sitting at ~50k. Thanks to the preparation, I didn't lose a dime but, instead, have gained another 10% (by knife-catching ETH, not by shorting). So, what do I expect next in terms of BTC movement?
The current low of 44.9k might be the top and we could gradually grind up making another ATH. It could be as easy as that. However, I love to make things more complicated, and thus I come up with my two possible scenarios:
1. The Blue scenario: when the majority of people believe the bottom was in, price dump one more time to the area of ~43.7k to 40k. To make life more dramatic, BTC price might dump to just below 43.7k to liquidate long positions and bounce up to front-run the bids in the 40k-42k zone. Then, price ranges for a while before going up again. This is also known as reaccumulation. In this case, the correction is gonna be ~28%.
2. The Red "bloody" scenario: price dump to the 40k-42k zone and bounce, all the bids get filled, people think they are geniuses. Then comes the max pain when the price drops further to the 32k-34k zone. Retail "investors" got f and institutions have another chance to jump into the market, driving the price to the moon. In this case, the correction is gonna be ~40%.
There are obviously hundreds of more scenarios, but I am expecting these two, and I am preferring the Blue one. In any cases, I think we need to see some kind of reaccumulation activities before a move higher. In the 30%-correction in Jan-2021, BTC also witnessed a couple days of ranging before pushing up higher. So now I just chill, observe and not rush in BTC.
Be prepared and have fun trading. If you find my posts helpful, please hit a like and I would be so happy. If you disagree, I would love to hear your opinion.
PS: the time span drawn in the chart is irrelevant, I did not consider the time factor when I drew.
The current low of 44.9k might be the top and we could gradually grind up making another ATH. It could be as easy as that. However, I love to make things more complicated, and thus I come up with my two possible scenarios:
1. The Blue scenario: when the majority of people believe the bottom was in, price dump one more time to the area of ~43.7k to 40k. To make life more dramatic, BTC price might dump to just below 43.7k to liquidate long positions and bounce up to front-run the bids in the 40k-42k zone. Then, price ranges for a while before going up again. This is also known as reaccumulation. In this case, the correction is gonna be ~28%.
2. The Red "bloody" scenario: price dump to the 40k-42k zone and bounce, all the bids get filled, people think they are geniuses. Then comes the max pain when the price drops further to the 32k-34k zone. Retail "investors" got f and institutions have another chance to jump into the market, driving the price to the moon. In this case, the correction is gonna be ~40%.
There are obviously hundreds of more scenarios, but I am expecting these two, and I am preferring the Blue one. In any cases, I think we need to see some kind of reaccumulation activities before a move higher. In the 30%-correction in Jan-2021, BTC also witnessed a couple days of ranging before pushing up higher. So now I just chill, observe and not rush in BTC.
Be prepared and have fun trading. If you find my posts helpful, please hit a like and I would be so happy. If you disagree, I would love to hear your opinion.
PS: the time span drawn in the chart is irrelevant, I did not consider the time factor when I drew.
相关出版物
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。