Since May 7th there have been 3 tests of the 10k region without follow through. The most recent attempted was rather surprising as the ascending triangle formation with lower highs and higher lows seemed imminent to forecast a 10K+ break, but we broke down that formation ( shown in green circle. I was bullish till this failed breakout happened, making me feel more bearish.
The longterm rally trend line from March has not been broken but it depends on how you the context. Right now the 4hr candle body is closing below the trend line, but not the entire candle ( if you include the wick). Last bounce the body never touched the trend line, just the wicks. This suggests that bulls are likely losing momentum and longs should exercise caution. Shorts can be scaled in 9400-9700, stoploss at 10,000. Longterm targets could be retesting the previous support lows near the 4k if this rally breaksdown
Bull Case
-We manage hold the 9400 area and go past the 9.8-10k region with high volume. A long if we breakout past the 9.8k region would be a good idea with a stoploss at 9400 and targets of 10.5-10.6k
The longterm rally trend line from March has not been broken but it depends on how you the context. Right now the 4hr candle body is closing below the trend line, but not the entire candle ( if you include the wick). Last bounce the body never touched the trend line, just the wicks. This suggests that bulls are likely losing momentum and longs should exercise caution. Shorts can be scaled in 9400-9700, stoploss at 10,000. Longterm targets could be retesting the previous support lows near the 4k if this rally breaksdown
Bull Case
-We manage hold the 9400 area and go past the 9.8-10k region with high volume. A long if we breakout past the 9.8k region would be a good idea with a stoploss at 9400 and targets of 10.5-10.6k