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BTC: NOTHING HAS CHANGED 12.7-14k still in play but watch out..

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still remember when a very good trader said in April "price movements below 10k have only been a distraction to shake you out before " and I got it what he meant and I still expect this kind of target.
Anyway so that this can play out very well BTC doesn't have to break the lowest point which is at $5750 otherwise a strong down move will come (key levels will be 4.5k- $3-3.2k - 1.8k and also possible the old ATH with a lot of bounced along the way which is around at 1.1k.
As the chart shows the main pattern to look at is the descending triangle which if it were broken down the target would be below 0...that's not possible of course and that's why I think it's still most likely it will get broken upward.
we can also notice on daily chart how the macd kept printing higher low (btw like gold and we can also see the structure is also similar to it as I showed in the previous idea ) which is a positive signal since if it is still able to print a higher low and break the pattern upwards it will give the possibility of a strong upmove.
right now the crowd expect capitulation which is possible of course but when most people expect specific scenario this one doesn't usually happen so I prefer assuming a long position in this area even because worth the risk to me.
always decide for yourself.

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just to see that this pattern may not necessarily broken down and it will also act as reversal pattern and btc is in the condition to do so. however even in 2014 target would have been negative which is not possible

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possible set-up to break upward
time is running out as macd suggests that's why another drop close to the "bottom" may not be good at all.
I marked 5750 as "bottom" because I expect we'll see a new low after touching the target (human psychology almost never changes)

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same price action, same pattern (I&HS), bullish div that will likely be followed by a drop just below the previous dip.

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I think we still have two attempts to break this big triangle upward.
for now it's likely to see BTC to hit 5970-6050 (either after breaking 6.2k already of rejected at 6.5k level) before testing the triangle resistance which will be about at 7000-7100 but if after that it breaks 6.8k as support then we'll likely see another fast drop towards 6.1k which has to be the last time.

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Macd suggests this strong up move needs to happen soon (within a month more or less)

I doubt we'll see another bullrun and the real bottom of this cycle could be anywhere between 1.8-3k

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selling pressure weak
I expect a break up to 6.5k level

交易结束：到达目标

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1) if it breaks 6.6k --> retest top of the triangle ($6.9-7k)
2) rejected here and looking for 5950-6050 over the next days which I expect

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when/if it breaks the triangle upwards there will be no need to open and close positions. just let your long ride all the way up to 12.7k at least

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right now I doubt we'll test 5.9-6k again
but I'll look for a retrace at 6.2-6.3k next week

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it already retraced just 5 min after i said I was expecting 6.3k
at the moment on 4h chart we can see BTC inside this bullpennant which if it breaks up 6.8k will be the target before another correction.

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peanut inside this rising wedge though

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given the low volume I expect the previous pattern will either turn into a bull flag or an ascending triangle.
regarding the break out of this big descending triangle I still think it will happen on the upside unlike most ppl think
when could this happen? I guess another rejection at $6.9-7k and it will find support at around 6.2-6.3k then break up. in April BTC was inside a symmetrical triangle which was bearish but it went to 9.9k. same thing will happen here (most likely) and capitulation is to be expect much more later.
of course the other side needs to be considered only if it goes sub 6k.

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if it breaks up which i still expect the up move will be much more strong than 2014

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looking for a retest of the main resistance which is at 6950-7050 as I was expecting and the scenario I'm still looking at is a break out on the upside that should occur this time if we break $7150 or
the next time after being rejected at 6.9-7k and find support at $6.2-6.3k
watch out if it goes sub6k though..the other side has to be considered as well.

break up is still more likely to me and target would be at least 12.7k max 14.5k
break down would mean 2.8-3.2k

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