20240710 MARKET UPDATE

In the past couple of days, the crypto market has seen a gentle recovery from the significant 15% dip between 2nd to 5th July, reaching a local bottom of 53k. Of course, this has led to a major capitulation in altcoin prices, ranging from 20-60%.

Why did the market tank?
The two major factors;
1. The Mt Gox BTC settlement - The defunct CEX, Mt Gox hacked of 10 years ago is finally settling creditors with over 47k BTC amounting to $9 billion. Fear is that at least half that amount will be unloaded directly into the market, creating sell pressure.
2. Germany selling off its seized BTC - A sizable portion of the seized bitcoin of about 50k from movie piracy site "movie2k" was sold in the open market, tanking prices.

However, the market pumped hard when in a strange pivot, the German govt bought back BTC at lower prices, pushing prices back up to 58k, after which there was a pullback to the 54k range - manipulation if you ask me!

These moves in the last few days saw longs and shorts with tight stop losses get liquidated, which the BTCUSDT chart formed a double bottom - which usually is a bullish indicator.

To confirm the bullish momentum, I would like to see BTC conquer the local resistance to close above $59,200 on the daily time frame. If this happens and the bulls regain confidence, the next major resistances will be between $63,400–64,900, which could potentially break us out of the consolidation phase that could lead to a parabolic run for BTC and altcoins. This is ultimately what I want to see, but the market will do what it'll do.🤷🏾‍♂️

I'm still holding multiple positions (CRYPTOCAP:WIF, NOT, TIA & HBAR) I entered into before BTC's 15% dip, so I'm very far from enthusiastic at the moment. I have DCA-ed on some of my positions, but my break even is still ways up since I was too headstrong to use a stop loss (apparently, a lesson I'm yet to learn!😄). I'm considering entering some new positions with a different futures account, but that'll only happen if I see the breakout for BTC that I hope for.

For now, I will just be sitting on my hands and watching from the sidelines. Something tells me to drop my conservative trading approach this season - it is what has kept me solvent over the years, but also what has kept my portfolio growth somewhat stunted.

Should I follow my intuition going forward? We'll see. 🤞🏾

GM crypto fam!!!