Bitcoin is BACK, and So Am I - BITCOIN! (BTC)
已更新
Hello friends, traders, everyone! I apologize for my absence.. it hasn't been the best week.
But in the cryptospace, things are great! Before we begin here, I need to say. Bear with me. I understand the chart is convoluted. I must convey, that each and every one of the lines on my chart has a very specific purpose. The chart would not be complete without all of them. I try very hard to mitigate clutter, and as my charting skills progress, hopefully I will be able to find some better solutions for this.
Now, let's get to it! I am given to understand that there has been some TOMFOOLERY regarding coinbase and possibly another exchange. I must emphasize that my analysis will ALWAYS focus ONLY on the chart. I promise you traders, this will help you!! Cancel out the noise. We all know manipulation is there. We all know it happens. It is our job to find out edge in the CHART!
So, in this analysis I will address three things:
What caused today's sudden drop?
Where will Bitcoin go from here?
Why aren't alts mooning?
First, let's have a look at the H4 chart to the right. I know, I know. Sling enough mud on the wall, right? Look, I'm not going to sugarcoat this. It is VERY HARD to say how BTC is going to react to so many fib lines simultaneously. I have put a few likely scenarios there for you to be able to follow what I am seeing. I am not putting these arrows all over in the interest of looking back later and saying "told you so", I am trying to show the different paths price can take through these areas. This is a critical area.
We had an impulse wave sparked by the .5 Fib Time Zone that brought us directly to resistance. The next Fib Time Zone coming up is the 0.618 and that is a big deal but we'll deal with that when we get there.
So we've got, the .236 Speedfan resistance (red, downtrending) intersecting with the 100% Fib channel (gold, uptrending). If you look to the left, you can see I have put a yellow circle there to show it more clearly.
TOUCHING THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO LINES CAUSED BTC TO RETRACE HARD AND FAST, NOT MANIPULATION.
How do I know this is a legitimate move? Consider the horizontal retracement on the right, we came back down nicely to the 61.8% retrace. Bitcoin has done this before, and recently HERE:
This is what we have to deal with in crypto. So, given that we did indeed see a retrace there, I will now target the 127% and 162% extensions, or $14990, and $15700, respectively.
I will note here, that yes, something about this rally seems strange. I can't quite put my finger on it. So I will continue to follow the charts.
Ok, a big problem a lot of people are having, on my channel I get many requests to chart alts, questions about what alts are doing, why they are tanking so horribly. You'll notice that most of my alt charts have big fat red sell boxes on them. I only trade a couple alts, as my broker only offers a few, and they're harder to chart as they're more unpredictable, but here's my take. Most altcoins are scams. Remember, this is a market. The market is deciding to pull value from alts to get back into BITCOIN. This is not my opinion, this is the market's opinion.
That's not to say, that alt's won't provide big gains in the future. I'm sure they will. But I am simply advising, be wary of the power bitcoin still very much has over the crypto market.
So, to wrap up. I have been long for some time now. Layering buys around
12K is probably fine.
There is a LOT going on in this market. There are a LOT of global factors affecting Bitcoin, Gold, Politics, etc. It is very, very hard to isolate the exact most prominent factors in the market right now. For this reason, I try as hard as I can to stick strictly to the technical data.
Traders, Good Luck. How Bitcoin reacts to the outer fib circles will give us more clues...
But in the cryptospace, things are great! Before we begin here, I need to say. Bear with me. I understand the chart is convoluted. I must convey, that each and every one of the lines on my chart has a very specific purpose. The chart would not be complete without all of them. I try very hard to mitigate clutter, and as my charting skills progress, hopefully I will be able to find some better solutions for this.
Now, let's get to it! I am given to understand that there has been some TOMFOOLERY regarding coinbase and possibly another exchange. I must emphasize that my analysis will ALWAYS focus ONLY on the chart. I promise you traders, this will help you!! Cancel out the noise. We all know manipulation is there. We all know it happens. It is our job to find out edge in the CHART!
So, in this analysis I will address three things:
What caused today's sudden drop?
Where will Bitcoin go from here?
Why aren't alts mooning?
First, let's have a look at the H4 chart to the right. I know, I know. Sling enough mud on the wall, right? Look, I'm not going to sugarcoat this. It is VERY HARD to say how BTC is going to react to so many fib lines simultaneously. I have put a few likely scenarios there for you to be able to follow what I am seeing. I am not putting these arrows all over in the interest of looking back later and saying "told you so", I am trying to show the different paths price can take through these areas. This is a critical area.
We had an impulse wave sparked by the .5 Fib Time Zone that brought us directly to resistance. The next Fib Time Zone coming up is the 0.618 and that is a big deal but we'll deal with that when we get there.
So we've got, the .236 Speedfan resistance (red, downtrending) intersecting with the 100% Fib channel (gold, uptrending). If you look to the left, you can see I have put a yellow circle there to show it more clearly.
TOUCHING THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO LINES CAUSED BTC TO RETRACE HARD AND FAST, NOT MANIPULATION.
How do I know this is a legitimate move? Consider the horizontal retracement on the right, we came back down nicely to the 61.8% retrace. Bitcoin has done this before, and recently HERE:
This is what we have to deal with in crypto. So, given that we did indeed see a retrace there, I will now target the 127% and 162% extensions, or $14990, and $15700, respectively.
I will note here, that yes, something about this rally seems strange. I can't quite put my finger on it. So I will continue to follow the charts.
Ok, a big problem a lot of people are having, on my channel I get many requests to chart alts, questions about what alts are doing, why they are tanking so horribly. You'll notice that most of my alt charts have big fat red sell boxes on them. I only trade a couple alts, as my broker only offers a few, and they're harder to chart as they're more unpredictable, but here's my take. Most altcoins are scams. Remember, this is a market. The market is deciding to pull value from alts to get back into BITCOIN. This is not my opinion, this is the market's opinion.
That's not to say, that alt's won't provide big gains in the future. I'm sure they will. But I am simply advising, be wary of the power bitcoin still very much has over the crypto market.
So, to wrap up. I have been long for some time now. Layering buys around
12K is probably fine.There is a LOT going on in this market. There are a LOT of global factors affecting Bitcoin, Gold, Politics, etc. It is very, very hard to isolate the exact most prominent factors in the market right now. For this reason, I try as hard as I can to stick strictly to the technical data.
Traders, Good Luck. How Bitcoin reacts to the outer fib circles will give us more clues...
注释
注释
Now this is interesting交易开始
Layered in. Should've put the entry lower. Probably the fib retracement could have considered the full impulse wave.I don't think the drop was a retrace per se, I think mostly just an effect from the aforementioned intersection of uptrend/downtrend resistance.
注释
交易开始
More buys triggered SL is 100% retrace 注释
注释
Could be this
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