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Friendship ended with bear market

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As you can see from the chart, during the last two bear markets, whenever we've exited the descending channel for multiple weekly closes, the bear market is over and the bull is on. Could this be the exception? I don't think so. Another interesting thing to note is that the last time we dipped into the green range was in the 2015 bear market.
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I think bitcoin will move along the heartline of this channel with a high likelihood that it could spring toward the top in the green, which would put it between 32-38k. This should probably happen before or in April, and if it doesn't, then I could see more downside in the cards where it has the possibility to move into the red from 19k all the way to 26k by September 2023.

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This is 2015/16 after bitcoin exited the white bear market descending channel and resumed its bull run, which it has just done again. I see some small chance that we could just hug the line, just as bitcoin did throughout all of 2016, which resulted in a slow and steady climb until the parabolic phase and mania of the bull reached its zenith.
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