No predictions here. Just noting.
Over the past week I was working on a macro Fibonacci level analysis of BTC for the entire period from October to now. I saw emerging in the charts a confluence that would suggest a deeper correction than $43k, which is where BTC hit after the initial downside impulse 21 February.
A deeper correction would have mirrored the January correction, and echo the 2017 correction, though unlike 2017 I would not see a deeper correction now as the end of BTC's bull run.
The crossover last night on the daily chart of the MACD line over the Signal line from underneath suggests strongly to me that this analysis is invalid — that $43k will indeed prove the base, and that BTC will break out above $55k and push towards retesting its ATH.
Nonetheless, looking again at January on the 4-hourly chart, one can see the close of one candle above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level on the initial downside impulse.
We haven't had that close yet in BTC's current position. And perhaps caution would dictate that we may need more than one 4-hourly close above $55k, to fully confirm the upside trend.
That BTC is lingering within the 0.786 zone now does appear to confirm that this correction is slower, overall, than January's correction.
This all said, at time of writing (10 Mar 2021 11:15:06) there are no exceptional alerts on BTC inflows to exchanges, and while there is a sell wall at $55k on the TensorChart heat map, it's not as significant as that which pushed BTC back from $55.8k to $53k eight hours ago.
Over the past week I was working on a macro Fibonacci level analysis of BTC for the entire period from October to now. I saw emerging in the charts a confluence that would suggest a deeper correction than $43k, which is where BTC hit after the initial downside impulse 21 February.
A deeper correction would have mirrored the January correction, and echo the 2017 correction, though unlike 2017 I would not see a deeper correction now as the end of BTC's bull run.
The crossover last night on the daily chart of the MACD line over the Signal line from underneath suggests strongly to me that this analysis is invalid — that $43k will indeed prove the base, and that BTC will break out above $55k and push towards retesting its ATH.
Nonetheless, looking again at January on the 4-hourly chart, one can see the close of one candle above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level on the initial downside impulse.
We haven't had that close yet in BTC's current position. And perhaps caution would dictate that we may need more than one 4-hourly close above $55k, to fully confirm the upside trend.
That BTC is lingering within the 0.786 zone now does appear to confirm that this correction is slower, overall, than January's correction.
This all said, at time of writing (10 Mar 2021 11:15:06) there are no exceptional alerts on BTC inflows to exchanges, and while there is a sell wall at $55k on the TensorChart heat map, it's not as significant as that which pushed BTC back from $55.8k to $53k eight hours ago.
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Meanwhile, we're reaching now to $56.6k, which aligns to resistance tested 22 February.
This could well mark a turning point to the downside, but be careful: on the daily chart, if $56.6 is the present limit, there is a target between the 0.386 and 0.5 Fibonacci that aligns with a zone previously resistance, now support, that calls to be re-tested.
Don't mistake a return to $52k as BTC folding back upon itself on the way to $38k. I think honestly that projection is virtually invalidated. So I would expect a retest of $52k before a return to the upside.