BULL Flag OR Back in the 6s

已更新

Bitcoin has had a nice little rally over the last few days, but I am not sold on a bullish reversal yet.
Looking at the 1H on the left we see that BTC has created a bull flag with an upward target of around $7650. Directly under that at $7563 is the .786 retracement from ~11.8k to ~6k which has been resistance previously on 3/29. This scenario could potentially play out but I do not see BTC going much higher in the short term.
The 200EMA (RED) is currently being heavy resistance, and there is also the blue line which has been heavy resistance as well. The RSI and MACD are starting to weaken as well as volume. We could see a reverse back into the 6000s very soon if buying volume stays low.
Another thing to look at is the total market cap which is currently hovering around 279B. This market cap area (274B-280B) has been heavy support for the market in the past (Feb 6th and Mar 18th), but broke down last week. I think it will be a complete market resistance level until sentiment changes in the upcoming weeks/months.
Thank you for reading and best of luck trading. Please like and follow!

注释

I never put a downside target. The green line has been heavily supportive since before the ATH and I believe that we will re-test it in the short term if we have a breakdown. If it does not hold, we can be seeing 6K again. Last time this green line was tested, it never confirmed below it and we had an immediate upwards bounce, just like on Feb 6th.
Note: Looking at the green line more closely, it needs to be slightly lower than it is, sorry about this. The correct point where the yellow and green line cross is $6486.

注释

Looks like there was a weak breakout of the minor bull flag, which was subsequently destroyed by the light blue line of heavy resistance.

注释

Update:

The MACD and RSI have completely turned over as well as the price action. A lot of people thought that the bear cycle was over, but as I mentioned, I was not sold. This chart only shows short term price action (1H chart), but it was evident by the large amount of resistance and lack of volume with the upwards price action that it was going to fail.

We are currently sitting on a support ~$6800 (shown below in the orange rectangle), that will probably fail after the upward momentum broke last night. The first target will be ~$6500 and then from there if we continue to breakdown we should be revisiting ~$6000.