做空

Selling Into Greed - Bitcoin (BTC)

已更新

Here it goes, one of my first ever legitimate short setups for Bitcoin. I called this "selling into greed" because my original bottom fishing post was called "buying into fear." That analysis is linked at bottom. Right now, I think the downside risk has increased substantially. The volume on this current move is extremely high. Large players need this sort of liquidity to unload their positions and take profit. Additionally, in its history, Bitcoin has NEVER broken this channel resistance on the first attempt. As you can clearly see in this chart, that uptrend channel (orange) has dictated much of the price action, and it has been a pretty clear indicator of the transition between a bull and a bear cycle.

Right now, I think the odds of a significant correction have increased. Bitcoin dominance is also inching closer to 70%, which is a historical turning point for the market. In terms of where it could fall, I think it can head back to the mid-11K area at minimum. That coincides with the top of the broken channel on Bitstamp:

If that fails to hold, I think a deeper retrace towards the $8-9K zone is also very possible. This would be an ideal reloading point, I think, for people who are looking to add to their positions. There of course exists an even more bearish possibility - that Bitcoin breaks back below these bullish channel supports, but I think the whole crypto market is showing that it wants to continue its long term growth. That would interrupt the pattern. I believe something unusual would have to happen for that to occur. Additionally, the RSI and Ultimate Oscillator are finally entering major sell zones on the weekly timeframe.

Obviously this does not have to play out. If Bitcoin can break and hold above the channel resistance and test it as support, I think it becomes more likely that we can retest our ATH very quickly at least before we see out much anticipated violent correction. Shorting Bitcoin is very risky, but I think many are starting to at least hedge with small margin short positions to reduce risk and lock in gains. This is also why I think it's important to not gamble on high leverage and set stops.

I posted a chart recently where I said Bitcoin could hit $50-100K by the end of July, or more conservatively, by August or September. This can still happen, even with a quick, violent drop. I'm just posting this because has long been one of the major resistance areas I was looking at - even when Bitcoin was at 6K for much of last year. I'm curious to see how this plays out now. Very curious indeed.

This is not financial advice! I just want to stick to my analysis and improve every day. This is for educational and speculative purposes only!

Linked below are several of my favorite charts, including my first ever TradingView post.

Good luck :)

-Victor Cobra

注释

Also, the total market cap is hitting a similar channel resistance. I added this to my altcoin analysis from today as well:

注释

Zoomed out:

注释

First signs of some big profit taking already:

注释

Broken channel resistance on Bitstamp lies around 11300. We'll have to see how price behaves if and when it drops to that level. That was a very quick selloff indeed. Timed pretty well, eh?

注释

Technically, we did actually drop to that mid 11K area already (11750 on Bitstamp). So we'll have to see if it can hold. There's still plenty of room for a further drop.

注释

Since dip buyers are still out in full force, probably the wise move (if one were margin shorting) would have been to short close to and close at $12, waiting until a lower support falls to reopen. Either way, that would have been an extremely profitable short trade. Takes balls though.

注释

As you can see, the pullback target on Bitstamp (at the top of the broken channel resistance) has been hit PERFECTLY. That was where one would have closed the short from the high 13K. Now we have to see if Bitcoin breaks below there. If it does, I think we could see a bit of panic dumping that could take us as far down at 7.8K. Yes, Bitcoin can fall that far and still look bullish.

注释

On Bitfinex, the channel support is also around 7.8K

注释

On the other hand, if Bitcoin can break the channel on Bitfinex and get above (as mentioned in the above analysis), I think ATH will be within our grasp.

注释

I just made a new analysis. Even though I said worst case we could head all the way to the bottom of the channel on this pullback, looking more closely at the previous bull market, it seems fairly possible that the low is set already, and that Bitcoin might have to consolidate for a while yet before it can break out of the channel to the upside. It may test the bottom of the channel, but at a much later date. We'll see. Either way, the violent pullback did happen as I said was a strong possibility.