BITCOIN DECLINE - WHO IS ACTUALLY SELLING?
Bitcoin has traded within an extremely tight price range for the last several days with a break-down of SMA100 (on the daily) last night (GMT+10). Meanwhile, the percent of 1+ years old supply keeps creeping to an ATH of >68%. WHO IS ACTUALLY SELLING?
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CURRENT MARKET SITUATION
Bitcoin broke down the seemingly sensitive support - SMA100 (on the daily). This support has never been broken before, at least since the break-out on12th of Jan this year. This is also the convergence support of SMA100 (on the daily) and SMA200 (on the weekly). Normally, such supports play an important role of "retaining the trend" and once violated, price tends to get ugly.
A SHIFT IN FRACTUAL MOMENTUM
History is a reminder of what has happened that leads to today's event. It doesn't necessarily mean that history will repeat but the market tends to behave cyclically.
Looking at the previous rally in late Q4.2023 - Q1.2023, we can see a various higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), creating two mini bull-run:
Accessing the current fractual move, which is mini bull-run #3, displaying a conventional series of HHs and HLs before shifting momentum, AGAIN. We are witnessing two LHs and one LL. As aforementioned in previous articles, Bitcoin PDZ might be around 27k down to 22.7k with high possibility at around 25k down to 24k.
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WHO IS SELLING ANYWAY???
The intention of buying/selling assets depends on the purpose of the trader. They can briefly be divided into 2 categories:
The percent of Supply Last Active 1+ years old is cyclical, having significantly declined when the market tops or steps into bullish trend and gradually increased during recession or bearish trend. Surprisingly, the long-term supply cohort is at an ATH of 68% and still rising ... This is impressive and has shown that even though price was rejected at the Cycle baseline of 30k, the long-term hodlers are still unfazed of the current situation.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE ONLY COHORT WHO IS SELLING, IS THE SHORT-TERM HODLERS. They are speculating and tend to get panic when price doesn't rally as expected. On the other hand, since it's only the short-term hodlers who trade, the trading volumes, recorded on CEXs, have not been impressive, trading at around 20k - 70k per day (on Binance). The sell pressure also comes from FUTURE/DERIVATIVES market as short-term trend is heading south.
It wouldn't be surprised if the long-term hodlers keep accumulating during the dip in the next few days, even weeks, resulting a continuous rising trend of The percent of Supply Last Active 1+ years old ratio.
_________________________________________________________________________________
ANOTHER ASPECT TO LOOK AT - BITCOIN ACTIVE ADDRESSES
The Bitcoin market tends to get "busy" when major rallies happen and can become extremely "quiet" during recession or side-way market. The more number in active addresses, the more confident the market, which effectively attracts more retail traders to participate, eventually pouring more capital into the asset and boosting the price up north.
However, this is a long process that doesn't magically happen within overnight.
Keep calm and accumulate, my friend!
_________________________________________________________________________________
CURRENT MARKET SITUATION
Bitcoin broke down the seemingly sensitive support - SMA100 (on the daily). This support has never been broken before, at least since the break-out on12th of Jan this year. This is also the convergence support of SMA100 (on the daily) and SMA200 (on the weekly). Normally, such supports play an important role of "retaining the trend" and once violated, price tends to get ugly.
A SHIFT IN FRACTUAL MOMENTUM
History is a reminder of what has happened that leads to today's event. It doesn't necessarily mean that history will repeat but the market tends to behave cyclically.
Looking at the previous rally in late Q4.2023 - Q1.2023, we can see a various higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), creating two mini bull-run:
- Mini bull-run #1: Price started rallying from sub 16k, manifesting multiple HHs and HLs until getting exhausted at sub 19k and commenced shifting momentum to lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL)
- Mini bull-run #2: Price started rallying from sub 17k, exhibiting an impressive series of HHs and HLs up til sub 26k. The momentum shifted when Bitcoin got exhausted at sub 26k, creating multiple LHs and LLs
Accessing the current fractual move, which is mini bull-run #3, displaying a conventional series of HHs and HLs before shifting momentum, AGAIN. We are witnessing two LHs and one LL. As aforementioned in previous articles, Bitcoin PDZ might be around 27k down to 22.7k with high possibility at around 25k down to 24k.
_________________________________________________________________________________
WHO IS SELLING ANYWAY???
The intention of buying/selling assets depends on the purpose of the trader. They can briefly be divided into 2 categories:
- The long-term hodlers: Who hold their coins for more than 6 months. For displaying purpose, we will cross out the 6 months - 12 months cohort and jump straight to 1+ years old supply (as shown below).
- The short-term hodlers: The rest of the hodlers.
The percent of Supply Last Active 1+ years old is cyclical, having significantly declined when the market tops or steps into bullish trend and gradually increased during recession or bearish trend. Surprisingly, the long-term supply cohort is at an ATH of 68% and still rising ... This is impressive and has shown that even though price was rejected at the Cycle baseline of 30k, the long-term hodlers are still unfazed of the current situation.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE ONLY COHORT WHO IS SELLING, IS THE SHORT-TERM HODLERS. They are speculating and tend to get panic when price doesn't rally as expected. On the other hand, since it's only the short-term hodlers who trade, the trading volumes, recorded on CEXs, have not been impressive, trading at around 20k - 70k per day (on Binance). The sell pressure also comes from FUTURE/DERIVATIVES market as short-term trend is heading south.
It wouldn't be surprised if the long-term hodlers keep accumulating during the dip in the next few days, even weeks, resulting a continuous rising trend of The percent of Supply Last Active 1+ years old ratio.
_________________________________________________________________________________
ANOTHER ASPECT TO LOOK AT - BITCOIN ACTIVE ADDRESSES
The Bitcoin market tends to get "busy" when major rallies happen and can become extremely "quiet" during recession or side-way market. The more number in active addresses, the more confident the market, which effectively attracts more retail traders to participate, eventually pouring more capital into the asset and boosting the price up north.
However, this is a long process that doesn't magically happen within overnight.
Keep calm and accumulate, my friend!
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