XBTFX

Bitcoin: still oversold

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币
Fed Chair Powell`s speech at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday was the event that markets were following with high interest. However, as expected, Powell was speaking with high precaution, not revealing any new information to the markets. Inflation target of 2% continues to be the major goal of the Fed and they will do everything in their power to bring the inflation to this level. This also includes further increase of interest rates if necessary. As he noted, the Fed is still moving in the clouds, trying to find the right policy moves. The crypto market had some volatility after the speech, but, at the end, finished the week flat.
BTC continues to be side traded. Moving range during the week was between levels of $25.370 up to $26.780, but the majority of trades were conducted around the $26K level. Also, BTC continues to move within an oversold territory for the second week in a row. RSI was moving around the level of 25, and did not even manage to touch the level of 30 during the week. Moving average of 50 days continues with its convergence toward the MA 200 counterpart, decreasing the space between two lines. If this trend continues, then there would be an increased probability for a so-called “dead cross” in the near future.

Selling orders continue to be prevalent for BTC, however, decreased daily trading volumes does not have strength to push the price to the lower grounds. RSI is moving within strongly oversold territory, indicating a potential reversal in the coming period. However, for the last two weeks, the market was resilient to make such a move. On a positive side is that $26K manages to hold the pressure. In case of a short term reversal, the price of BTC might head toward the $28K, a short term stop for BTC, in order to test this level. A move to the higher grounds is unlikely at this moment, based on charts. In case of some negative fundamentals, there is a lower probability that the price of BTC might move to the 25K support line, but this line should not be excluded as a potential move in the week ahead.

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