blow-off top prediction: $100k incoming
已更新
it's fairly obvious that a well-timed trade can be the difference between being really really rich and... not.
i'm fully expecting a blow-off top this cycle (as is the pattern over and over again in crypto). when it happens, it happens so quickly and violently that it's nearly impossible to make the calculated, rational decision required for maximum profits. i'm doing my best to prepare now so when the time comes, i'll be ready.
here's what i see now:
(1) price moving steadily in this rising channel, at almost exactly the same rate as the first wave of this bull run
(2) strong support at 57k should hold up (2x the summer lows). if it doesn't, it would look quite bearish to me. if it does hold up, i think we're ready to ride off into a parabolic sunset.
where we're (probably) heading:
(1) next stop is 79k-80k (2x prior local low), probably near the top of the channel. anticipating margin buy/sell behavior remains one of the simplest and most effective methods for predicting tops.
(2) fast and furious to 110k-120k (2x current local low), probably near the the 1.618 extension of the channel which in my experience is the most common place for a blow-off top to run out of steam.
that's (not coincidentally) almost exactly where i predicted the top would be earlier this year when studying the rate of diminishing returns from the last two cycles:
this is where i plan on unloading everything in my trading account, and skimming a few percent off the top of all of my long term alt bags.
i'll also be keeping a very close eye on the ETH chart, as i've seen plenty of recent evidence that it's become the chart that moves the market.
don't get too greedy, and you just might get rich
i'm fully expecting a blow-off top this cycle (as is the pattern over and over again in crypto). when it happens, it happens so quickly and violently that it's nearly impossible to make the calculated, rational decision required for maximum profits. i'm doing my best to prepare now so when the time comes, i'll be ready.
here's what i see now:
(1) price moving steadily in this rising channel, at almost exactly the same rate as the first wave of this bull run
(2) strong support at 57k should hold up (2x the summer lows). if it doesn't, it would look quite bearish to me. if it does hold up, i think we're ready to ride off into a parabolic sunset.
where we're (probably) heading:
(1) next stop is 79k-80k (2x prior local low), probably near the top of the channel. anticipating margin buy/sell behavior remains one of the simplest and most effective methods for predicting tops.
(2) fast and furious to 110k-120k (2x current local low), probably near the the 1.618 extension of the channel which in my experience is the most common place for a blow-off top to run out of steam.
that's (not coincidentally) almost exactly where i predicted the top would be earlier this year when studying the rate of diminishing returns from the last two cycles:
this is where i plan on unloading everything in my trading account, and skimming a few percent off the top of all of my long term alt bags.
i'll also be keeping a very close eye on the ETH chart, as i've seen plenty of recent evidence that it's become the chart that moves the market.
don't get too greedy, and you just might get rich
注释
a lot of chatter about BTC losing momentum, looking weak, etc. remember, these tops happen at the blink of an eye. take a look at 2017 - the price was 5.5k on november 12th. and we all know how that story ended: how quickly we forget...
注释
buckle up注释
pattern? divergences are tricky, because they don't actually exist until the price makes a local top/bottom. so is a bearish divergence forming? probably. but where will price be when it tops?
注释
people always assume that large inflows of BTC to exchanges means that a crash is imminent. but it could also mean the opposite. i've been moving crypto from wallets to exchanges over the last week or so, and it's not because i think prices are about to go down... just sayin
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