BTC 4 year cycle theory - the BIGGEST MISCONCEPTION in 2019?
已更新
As I have pointed out in my last idea, I´m not too much of a believer of the BTC 4 year cycle theory. Today, I want to show you why.
First and foremost, I want to show my honest respect for the well known cycle analyst, Bob Loukas, who initally shared and helped to spread the 4 year cycle theory with a big audience of crypto enthusiasts. I respect your experience and it´s always a great pleasure to watch your videos. But even though I don´t have all these years of experience, I have to disagree with Bob´s theory.
As you can see on the chart above, I did my research on BTC price history. And what I found clearly destroyed all my beliefs in the 4YCT.
As pointed out, the first cycle didn´t start in 2008, as many of you still believe. Actually, the first block got mined in January, 2009 by our OG, Satoshi Nakamoto. He received a reward of 50 BTC for this block and it was also the hour of birth of BTC´s first cycle.
After years of mining, baby steps towards adoption and pizzas worth 10.000 BTC´s, BTC price topped out for the first time at around 31$ in July of 2011.
It was not just the first top but also the beginning of the first significant pullback, or so-called bear market. For the rest of the year, BTC dropped more than 90% and all the way down back to about 2.3$. But it´s not about the amount of percentages that BTC dropped. The interesting thing is the time span that it took: about 144 days.
Including the first bull market, it took us only 2 years and 10 months to finish the first full cycle.
Since that day, Bitstamp offers us a chart where we can not only estimate price action, but where we can clearly see and measure the **** out of it.
The second cycle started at December 2011 and lasted till late August of 2015 - or 3 years and 9 months.
The third and previous cycle then took place from Sep 2015 to Dec 2018 - or 3 years and 3 months.
So now my question for you guys: Where do you see the similarity? Where do you spot 4 year cycles? And why are you so sure about the bottom of 3k?
Many of you will now reply and say that fundamentals have changed. With BAKKT, Fidelity and many other things, it´s crystal clear that we have to move up. And yeah, I agree!
But now, as we already mix fundamentals with cycle analysis, what about the fact, that we never retested old resistance on the grand scheme of things? It´s around 1k and it´s the top of the 2nd bull market.
For those of you who are saying that this is impossible: Look at what happened in 2014/2015 and where BTC found it´s bottom. Almost exactly at the top of the previous bull market. And that´s just one of many reasons to maybe take a step back and try to shut down FOMO for a while. Look at TA signals like the NVT indicator, greed and fear index, fundamental signals like the BAKKT delay and various regulations of countries like U.S. or as a wrap up: cycle analysis signals like the not existing 4 year cycle.
Oh, and we also made a higher back in May of 2014. It was only the beginning of the real capitulation as you can see.
Stay safe my friends!
This is not financial advice. It´s only my opinion about the market.
First and foremost, I want to show my honest respect for the well known cycle analyst, Bob Loukas, who initally shared and helped to spread the 4 year cycle theory with a big audience of crypto enthusiasts. I respect your experience and it´s always a great pleasure to watch your videos. But even though I don´t have all these years of experience, I have to disagree with Bob´s theory.
As you can see on the chart above, I did my research on BTC price history. And what I found clearly destroyed all my beliefs in the 4YCT.
As pointed out, the first cycle didn´t start in 2008, as many of you still believe. Actually, the first block got mined in January, 2009 by our OG, Satoshi Nakamoto. He received a reward of 50 BTC for this block and it was also the hour of birth of BTC´s first cycle.
After years of mining, baby steps towards adoption and pizzas worth 10.000 BTC´s, BTC price topped out for the first time at around 31$ in July of 2011.
It was not just the first top but also the beginning of the first significant pullback, or so-called bear market. For the rest of the year, BTC dropped more than 90% and all the way down back to about 2.3$. But it´s not about the amount of percentages that BTC dropped. The interesting thing is the time span that it took: about 144 days.
Including the first bull market, it took us only 2 years and 10 months to finish the first full cycle.
Since that day, Bitstamp offers us a chart where we can not only estimate price action, but where we can clearly see and measure the **** out of it.
The second cycle started at December 2011 and lasted till late August of 2015 - or 3 years and 9 months.
The third and previous cycle then took place from Sep 2015 to Dec 2018 - or 3 years and 3 months.
So now my question for you guys: Where do you see the similarity? Where do you spot 4 year cycles? And why are you so sure about the bottom of 3k?
Many of you will now reply and say that fundamentals have changed. With BAKKT, Fidelity and many other things, it´s crystal clear that we have to move up. And yeah, I agree!
But now, as we already mix fundamentals with cycle analysis, what about the fact, that we never retested old resistance on the grand scheme of things? It´s around 1k and it´s the top of the 2nd bull market.
For those of you who are saying that this is impossible: Look at what happened in 2014/2015 and where BTC found it´s bottom. Almost exactly at the top of the previous bull market. And that´s just one of many reasons to maybe take a step back and try to shut down FOMO for a while. Look at TA signals like the NVT indicator, greed and fear index, fundamental signals like the BAKKT delay and various regulations of countries like U.S. or as a wrap up: cycle analysis signals like the not existing 4 year cycle.
Oh, and we also made a higher back in May of 2014. It was only the beginning of the real capitulation as you can see.
Stay safe my friends!
This is not financial advice. It´s only my opinion about the market.
注释
As user @gwaaf just told me, there is a chart which shows BTC price back to 2010. Take a look at 
BLX to get an even clearer picture of price actions.
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