Bitcoin (BTC): Last Long Term Support
If you found yourself wondering why BTC has done nothing but chop back and forth for roughly a month now, look no further. This represents the absolute last remanence of the current uptrend.
This support holding has not been my base case for BTC as I've expected the price to find itself at least to the 200W MA for quite a long time now.
Something important to note is that this channel is only reliant on considering the Covid low to be a valid point on the chart.
I think an argument can be made that since it was a complete Black Swan Event (Outlier) it is reasonable to take the next valid point which would be here:
As you can see it paints an entirely different picture, but again, I think validity is up for interpretation here.
One thing I must note which I think is very important is the comparison to previous Bull Runs. If you take a look at the chart; it shows you the strong rejection BTC had right before breaking out leading to a blow off the top (May 2021). Every cycle in the past led to a parabolic rise when this channel was broken and when this time it wasn't, the market was confused. Market makers thought they could squeeze a bit more out (which they did) since we didn't see that blow off the top and BTC bounced once again in July 2021.
My overall point here is that this shows us there is real suppression in the markets. There are Cyclical Forces in the mix. Something greater than FED Policy because remember, they are only reactionary. If the market didn't force them, then they would have never acted. So they are only a pawn on a big chess board. I speak of the FED because their policy affects the stock market, which in turn affects Crypto.
It seems like many don't know this, but it is the same big entities playing both markets. The same big money that front-run stocks, also (Id argue more precisely) front-run Crypto.
The World Economy is in a very rough state. Between Geopolitical tensions, Supply chain issues, soaring energy prices (Gas at $5.00), Inflation still raging, Food Crisis, etc, many people's lives are truly being affected.
Many people can't even properly afford to live their lives and keep a roof over their heads, not to mention the ones who are still trying to are maxing out their credit to keep up. Total Revolving Credit is historically at an all-time high (look it up).
Over the last few years, there has been an unpreceded amount of crisis. The rich are able to capitalize on these opportunities and the poor get to suffer the consequences. The wealth gap we see today has never been greater in our lifetime and honestly beyond. There will be consequences to pay for this wealth gap that has completely erased the middle class.
To put it simply It's been surprising to see price hold for some long in this area without breaking up or down. It shows just how much uncertainty there is.
I can make a strong argument why we will not see strong long-term moves to the upside for quite some time but that is not what this post is for. That will come with a follow-up post.
For now, I just want the chart to speak for itself and plead its own case without noise. While touching on a few things I consider important.
I understand this is an extended post, but I think it is important to expand our perception and understand the broader fundamentals because ultimately all the dominoes fall in order. Once you understand this, seeing the big picture instead of the small one becomes easier.
The last thing I'll say which I think is the most strange of all, pay attention to the bottom left of the chart. Notice that extended wick at exactly November 21, 2011? Isn't it really strange that one wick represented the exact top and bottom of this channel? Can't really wrap my head around that one.
Anyways, cheers
This support holding has not been my base case for BTC as I've expected the price to find itself at least to the 200W MA for quite a long time now.
Something important to note is that this channel is only reliant on considering the Covid low to be a valid point on the chart.
I think an argument can be made that since it was a complete Black Swan Event (Outlier) it is reasonable to take the next valid point which would be here:
As you can see it paints an entirely different picture, but again, I think validity is up for interpretation here.
One thing I must note which I think is very important is the comparison to previous Bull Runs. If you take a look at the chart; it shows you the strong rejection BTC had right before breaking out leading to a blow off the top (May 2021). Every cycle in the past led to a parabolic rise when this channel was broken and when this time it wasn't, the market was confused. Market makers thought they could squeeze a bit more out (which they did) since we didn't see that blow off the top and BTC bounced once again in July 2021.
My overall point here is that this shows us there is real suppression in the markets. There are Cyclical Forces in the mix. Something greater than FED Policy because remember, they are only reactionary. If the market didn't force them, then they would have never acted. So they are only a pawn on a big chess board. I speak of the FED because their policy affects the stock market, which in turn affects Crypto.
It seems like many don't know this, but it is the same big entities playing both markets. The same big money that front-run stocks, also (Id argue more precisely) front-run Crypto.
The World Economy is in a very rough state. Between Geopolitical tensions, Supply chain issues, soaring energy prices (Gas at $5.00), Inflation still raging, Food Crisis, etc, many people's lives are truly being affected.
Many people can't even properly afford to live their lives and keep a roof over their heads, not to mention the ones who are still trying to are maxing out their credit to keep up. Total Revolving Credit is historically at an all-time high (look it up).
Over the last few years, there has been an unpreceded amount of crisis. The rich are able to capitalize on these opportunities and the poor get to suffer the consequences. The wealth gap we see today has never been greater in our lifetime and honestly beyond. There will be consequences to pay for this wealth gap that has completely erased the middle class.
To put it simply It's been surprising to see price hold for some long in this area without breaking up or down. It shows just how much uncertainty there is.
I can make a strong argument why we will not see strong long-term moves to the upside for quite some time but that is not what this post is for. That will come with a follow-up post.
For now, I just want the chart to speak for itself and plead its own case without noise. While touching on a few things I consider important.
I understand this is an extended post, but I think it is important to expand our perception and understand the broader fundamentals because ultimately all the dominoes fall in order. Once you understand this, seeing the big picture instead of the small one becomes easier.
The last thing I'll say which I think is the most strange of all, pay attention to the bottom left of the chart. Notice that extended wick at exactly November 21, 2011? Isn't it really strange that one wick represented the exact top and bottom of this channel? Can't really wrap my head around that one.
Anyways, cheers
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