Everything is mostly the same

Greetings everybody,

In recent two sessions market has got relief as geopolitical tensions calm down a bit and dust around Fed hawkish policy has settled. Still, we suggest that this is temporal relief, as in geopolitics as around Fed policy. Technically it takes shape of wobbling choppy and heavy upside action that difficult to call as reversal stage. As we've already discussed - to let us to think about any reversal at all, market has to form upside reversal swing and break LL-LH downside tendency.

Right now BTC is not able even to reach 1H 5/8 resistance area. Thus, in current circumstance we do not consider any long entry by far and keep our mid term 26K target valid. For the short entry there are few options exist. Most obvious right now is potential butterfly pattern that could trigger downside continuation.

Theoretically, we could imagine some upside continuation in a way of AB=CD pattern and minor upside butterfly that could finalize it (try to imagine it by yourself), but we do not see sufficient fundamental background for this action using cross-market analysis, especially with interest rates market. it makes us to treat this scenario as less probable.

For more details - watch our video on FPA site.