Yesterday we saw the BTC bulls put up a show with over 5% gains over the course of the day. Personally, I was not expecting such a bullish day to happen anytime soon. Part of the explanation is the oversold RSI on higher time frames for the first time in months, combined with shorts getting liquidated.
For now, I'm still not convinced that the bulls have the overhand in the short-term. A clear rejection from 42,200 indicates that bears are still dominating the short-term. However, if the bulls can pull through we might see a move towards 43,500 or higher.
I stand by my earlier analyses where I discussed my idea of the ETF being a longer-term top. To invalidate that analysis I'd like to see a move above 50k in the next 1-2 months. Personally, I think we're going to see 50k after the halving.