Bitcoin: Double Bottom Off Major Support Points To 12Ks?

2019年7月28日

A high degree of randomness. That is the best description for the Bitcoin price action in recent days. The real question is can you see through it OR are you distracted further by things like small time frames and over reactive chartists continuously making unrealistic claims? Filtering out the noise has everything to do with arriving at YOUR OWN conclusions and that does NOT come from chasing action, especially ideas proliferating around the internet. In this analysis, I will explain the elements that we use to construct our perspective and shape our trade ideas. It begins with LESS IS MORE.

We are still maintaining a swing trade long from 10,150. It is against us, but our stop has not been reached. And current price action may be setting up for yet another buy signal. During the retrace from 11K to 9350, we maintained our position and stuck to our plan. We don't chase every trade, we don't short, and we don't over complicate anything. Sure we have missed some moves, but our performance since January has been stable and CONSISTENT and showing a return of around 10%.

I must repeat this often because traders are so distracted by frivolous information: LESS IS MORE. Elliott Wave provides a road map, geometric proportions provide locations, and candle sticks provide confirmations. Developing your OWN perspective does NOT require much more.

Based on these tools, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a broad Wave 2 corrective sequence. Within this sequence, certain geometric proportions are going to carry some weight. The 9750 support region is ONE such area. I use the word region because price can fluctuate wildly around the precise level. And so far it is not only staying near the general area, it is also in the process of developing a broader double bottom formation. Within that, an inside bar is forming which can lead to a new buy signal.

The 9750 Region is a proportion to the entire previous impulse structure originating from the 3150 low. To us that means the general area is a HIGH PROBABILITY BULLISH REVERSAL ZONE. That means two things: SHORTS are extremely risky in this area, NO MATTER what your 1 HR chart says, or your 1 HR chart guru. Small time frames are notorious for blinding you from the bigger picture. Secondly, reversal formations followed by a buy signal have GREATER POTENTIAL. Our targets are place strategically within the 11 to 12K resistance area.

In summary, the fact that Bitcoin is slow to make any real bearish progress is a sign of strength that is not obvious to the typical trader or investor. Bearish progress means taking out MAJOR supports and closing decisively below them. 9750 was compromised, BUT price is now lingering around 9500 which is NOT significantly lower. A close below 9K is what will increase the chances of a more bearish scenario playing out.

If you find yourself confused, most likely its because you are lacking perspective. The process begins on the larger time frames, not smaller. And without a framework to compare against, you will have hard time generating your own ideas. Many think market timing can be learned by trial and error intuitively, or by simply observing others charts. Sure you can take that route, but prepared for at least a decade long learning curve (to achieve basic proficiency).

Or you can take the route of professional development and begin learning something like Elliott Wave. It is a starting point, a proven framework, a way to organize your analytical process, NOT a precise solution. Those looking for perfection and precision are looking in the WRONG place. Over the short term, SENTIMENT is the most powerful driver of ALL financial markets and it is usually messy and imperfect.

Generating a consistent return is NOT about having the best pattern or signal. It is all about weighing probabilities, WAITING for the market to align and PROTECTING capital when the market doesn't agree.

2019年7月31日

注释

This is the chart that we shared on Sunday with our followers. The buy trigger was 9685. This is an alternate trade to the other swing trade that we are managing from 10,150. As you can see our targets are proportional and within reason.

The 9750 support has proven itself so far. Many do not realize, this is NOT a game of precision or absolute indicators. It is about evaluating sentiment and that can be done through observing price behavior around levels, and confirming with candle sticks.

My objective here is to provide some PERSPECTIVE on where we think the market is going using some technical examples. Following others will NOT provide any long term value. Ideas must come from within. If you don't find my perspective of any use, there are many alternatives to evaluate within this community. I appreciate all the criticism, but at least provide concrete chart examples that can provide value for the rest of the community members to learn something from.