🔥 Bitcoin: Statistical Analysis Of Q4-2021

2021年9月30日

With the fourth quarter of the year starting tomorrow, I'd like to give a short overview of the historical returns of the fourth quarter.

Quarter / Returns
4-2010 / 384.7%
4-2011-8.1%
4-2012 / 9.0%
4-2013 / 421.0%
4-2014 / -16.7%
4-2015 / 81.4%
4-2016 / 59.2%
4-2017 / 220.4%
4-2018 / -43.8%
4-2019 / -13.7%
4-2020 / 168.9%

Average results per quarter:
1 / 68.5%
2 / 216.9%
3 / 9.2%
4 / 114.7%

Looking at the data, we can deduce a couple of interesting things.

Over the last 11 fourth quarters, only 4 ended up with negative returns. This means that, historically, 63.6% of all fourth quarters ended up green.
Another interesting find is that the average fourth quarter loss is equal to -20.6%, whereas the average forth quarter gain is equal to an immense +192.1%.

Assuming that historical data can be indicative of the future, we can safely say that the fourth quarter will be, at the very least, better than the third quarter.

Where do you think that the fourth quarter of 2021 will bring us?