Timing changes to this bearish scenario.
Scenario forecasted initial price to move down in the near-term over the seasonal holidays and beyond - watching for a breakdown as we near Christmas. It would be bad form to occur on happen Christmas day.
Scenario centres on historical Market Top interplay:
- The yellow line emulates (broadly) historical tops and interaction with 50wk MA (or relative timeframe MA)
- Tops are sometimes though of as a parabolic spike then collapse of price but this is rarely the case (within relative timeframes).
- Tops are often drawn out affairs and while they are not clear distribution patterns like rounded tops they are offloading all the same.
- Supportive evidence are the US and INDIA equity market examples below that were forecasted to break down.
- The timings of the strategy relies on TA and herd mentality - Typically BTC sees a rally around Christmas.. or a 'Santa Rally'. Hypothesis is that market leveraging a traditionally strong December and selling into retail while forming a false falling wedge. Omicron is certainly a concern for people but scenario assumes this as a smokescreen for markets.
Entry Targets based on horizontal support structures. Estimates are:
Long Entry $41k targeting Short Entry at $49k in Jan
LE $28k Feb targeting SE at $41k in March
LE $21k to ride market growth in May
Best, Hard Forky
Bear market initiated?
(Assumed) top of US markets back in late November - Target Hit.
Approach to top of Asia markets (INDIA) back in June 2021 - Target Hit.
Scenario forecasted initial price to move down in the near-term over the seasonal holidays and beyond - watching for a breakdown as we near Christmas. It would be bad form to occur on happen Christmas day.
Scenario centres on historical Market Top interplay:
- The yellow line emulates (broadly) historical tops and interaction with 50wk MA (or relative timeframe MA)
- Tops are sometimes though of as a parabolic spike then collapse of price but this is rarely the case (within relative timeframes).
- Tops are often drawn out affairs and while they are not clear distribution patterns like rounded tops they are offloading all the same.
- Supportive evidence are the US and INDIA equity market examples below that were forecasted to break down.
- The timings of the strategy relies on TA and herd mentality - Typically BTC sees a rally around Christmas.. or a 'Santa Rally'. Hypothesis is that market leveraging a traditionally strong December and selling into retail while forming a false falling wedge. Omicron is certainly a concern for people but scenario assumes this as a smokescreen for markets.
Entry Targets based on horizontal support structures. Estimates are:
Long Entry $41k targeting Short Entry at $49k in Jan
LE $28k Feb targeting SE at $41k in March
LE $21k to ride market growth in May
Best, Hard Forky
Bear market initiated?
(Assumed) top of US markets back in late November - Target Hit.
Approach to top of Asia markets (INDIA) back in June 2021 - Target Hit.
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Long scenario to counter my bearish bias
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