BTC's Complex Head And Shoulder Top

2019年6月14日

I wanted to do a more thorough analysis of the right shoulder in regards to this pattern, and after more scrutiny, it appears as if the right shoulder is a rising broadening wedge (blue) with a rising wedge (purple)contained within it.

There is approximately 8 hours to the resolution of the rising wedge within the broadening one. Rising wedges are naturally a bearish continuation pattern, however, it is possible that they break to the upside, if it does break to the upside, it will break through the broadening wedge. I think that this is unlikely because there were two strong pushes to 8300, known as an upthrust (bull trap) seen under the white curve on the right most shoulder, that both failed.

In addition, there were three total pushes through the upper trendline of the rising broadening wedge with no success. This principle follows the rules of three (something to note, but not use to dictate the outcome). Thus, I will favor the downside break of this rising wedge and a downside break of the overall broadening wedge completely forming the complex head and shoulder.

Previous Analysis:

2019年6月14日

注释

Here is the apex of the rising wedge, I drew 3 different possibilities, for the bullish case, it needs to break the upper trendline one HIGH volume (orange), otherwise, I expect small bounces off of the lower trendline before it falls (white) or one large bounce and then it falls (yellow). One thing to note that it is not as important for bearish patterns to break out with volume, but it is a good determinant for the strength of the bears.