BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: B Wave And Resistance Zone.

2017年11月15日

BTCUSD update: Price is retesting the 6950 to 7350 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish swing) which is the 3rd leg of Wave B. This is where it gets tricky. Will it retrace lower or keep going?

In my previous report I wrote that I was anticipating this upswing because this is a typical zig zag formation that is characteristic of Wave B counter corrections. I also wrote that it was an attractive day trading opportunity and I hope traders managed to get in on the move.

Why is this tricky now? Isn't it going to 8k? I always say anything is possible, BUT price is right in the middle of the .618 resistance zone that is a typical area for corrective waves like this to complete. Price is more likely to turn lower from here and begin the C Wave which can take this make back to the high 4ks. For those looking for shorts, this is the area to begin evaluating for weakness. There is none at the moment.

On top of that, the 6950 area is an old support (previous Wave iv) which is likely to act as a new resistance. Another reason to lock in profit and reduce risk if you got long in the 6500 area yesterday.

What if price just keeps going up? It is less likely, but it can happen. Another scenario is Wave C may not unfold and the market may only produce a shallow retrace before attempting to retest the 8k high. The bearish confirmation that I am looking for to signal that the C Wave is in play is a break of the 6550 level which is now the .382 of the recent bullish swing. A break and decisive close below that level will mean price is probably on its way to retest the lower levels described earlier.

If price instead produces a higher low above the 6550 area, then it is signaling further strength. This has happened a couple of times in this market recently so you must be on the look out and you must not carry any opinions. Recognizing and adjusting are the key skills, especially in a fast market, NOT the intellectual pursuit of fundamentals. This mindset is specific to these type of markets and short time frame trading NOT long term investing.

So what's my plan now? I am not buying these highs, especially in the middle of a resistance zone. I am not buying any pullback UNLESS price action proves itself by showing solid bullish formations above the 6550 level. I will evaluate that IF the market offers the opportunity. Otherwise I am flat.

In summary, moving 500+ points a day is great and full of opportunity on smaller time frames. I will tell you from experience, don't get use to this. Once the CME gets involved and regulators start regulating, I would not expect this market to move as generously as this. I saw it happen in the stock market, futures, and forex markets. There will always be opportunity, but there are times when it is extremely generous and now is one of those times. I can't repeat this enough: be quick, and do not get caught with an opinion. If price action is saying "turn" just turn, don't fight it. If it is saying "higher" don't fight that either. It is all about how to "listen" to what the market is saying. That is the skill we are always refining as short term traders and active investors.

Comments and questions welcome.