Future view
已更新
Time analisys.
A: time from ATH to ATH is taken after bear market
B: time from previous ATH is taken to new ATH
C: time from lowest point during bearmarket after ATH to new ATH
D: Time from lowest point on bear market to next lowest point on bear market
IF the cycle will repeat during this phase THEN new ATH will be somewhere around sept/dec 21 at green box E and consequent lowest low will be somewhere around Sept/Dec 22 at red box F (E and F doesn't shows price values, only time values). We have 1 year of new bullish phase.
Another aspect of that time analisys is that if we consider the macro trend high and lows:
1-Previous ath on Nov 2013
2-lowest point on bear market at Jan 2015
3-New ATH on Dec 2017
4-New lowest point on bear market at Dec 2018
And we use trend based fib ext on point 2,3,4
we have interesting "targets"
1.618 at 34k
2.618 at 54k
Too much money? Maybe. 34k is "only" +40% from today.
And what about the uptrend channel? isn't it nice?
A: time from ATH to ATH is taken after bear market
B: time from previous ATH is taken to new ATH
C: time from lowest point during bearmarket after ATH to new ATH
D: Time from lowest point on bear market to next lowest point on bear market
IF the cycle will repeat during this phase THEN new ATH will be somewhere around sept/dec 21 at green box E and consequent lowest low will be somewhere around Sept/Dec 22 at red box F (E and F doesn't shows price values, only time values). We have 1 year of new bullish phase.
Another aspect of that time analisys is that if we consider the macro trend high and lows:
1-Previous ath on Nov 2013
2-lowest point on bear market at Jan 2015
3-New ATH on Dec 2017
4-New lowest point on bear market at Dec 2018
And we use trend based fib ext on point 2,3,4
we have interesting "targets"
1.618 at 34k
2.618 at 54k
Too much money? Maybe. 34k is "only" +40% from today.
And what about the uptrend channel? isn't it nice?
注释
The 2 targets have been reached and after 1 year we are exatly at green box E with a possible ATH... Let's see注释
注释
Never been so scared while thinking to be right注释
What can I say? we are there... this should be the moment of the bottom (please note that red rectangle doesn't show price values but only time values (when will be the bottom)交易开始
交易开始
What can I say?Chart speak much more louder and clearer than words.
I spotted the cycle top exactly 11 months before it arrived.
And it seems I also spotted the following bottom 2 years before it.
White arrow is when I published this idea.
注释
I sold the top and bought the bottom.White arrow is when I Posted this idea.
注释
交易开始
Using the same parameters that made me sell the top and buy the bottom i can try a new forecast (note that i'm talking about the moment when top shoud be, NOT it's money value).2024 halving top should be in Q4 2025 (green box)
My concern is that BTC is going too fast. I think that ETF money inflows is pushing hard. So the bullish phase top could arrive earlier than expected.
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