比特币做空
Rough look at what could be forming into a 2018 dead cat bounce
Here are my thoughts as to how this could POTENTIALLY be a deadcat bounce similar to 2018. (Using the numbers as per where they sit on that chart):
1.) In 2017, the price of BTC bounced of the 50MA and started its run back up signalling a potential reversal, however, as the volume shows it is not driven by the same kind of volume previously in the 2017 bullrun, the reversal had little backing. This showed that this bounce did not have the juice in it to continue the reversal, and hence it broke down and shot below the 50MA.
2.) Here we can see that the price is now below the 50MA where it had not previously been for the 2016/2017 bullrun. The price stayed here for roughly 5-6 months, with a stable yet lower volume indicating the market had lost its public mania interest.
3.) This is the present day chart, where I have created a ghost pattern of the '2.)' section as an overview of what we could POTENTIALLY expect to see if this is indeed a similar deadcat bounce from 2018.
What to watch out for here in the next months if this downtrend continues, is to see if the BTC breaks below the 50MA (approx. $37,500). The post peak, low volume is already setting itself up for this narrative, we just need see how the price reacts to the 50MA.
IMO, (not financial advice as always) this just looks to similar to the past 2017 bullrun. I dont think we can push all time highs again so soon because we have already used up the mania hype so recently, they would be hesitant to jump in again. I believe we need to mania hype now at these prices more than ever as because rather than in 2017, where the market cap needed 10's of billions of dollars to move the price significantly, now it requires 100's of billions. The SEC stuff happening right now is all to coincidentally timed for this potential deadcat bounce as well, keeping the public 'protected' (lol).
All my trading bots are long atm so god help me for hedging against them haha, but this just looks all to simple to see without overdoing it with indicators. ULTIMATELEY the final bottom in the far future for bitcoin may just bounce off nicely on the 200MA as it has previously, which at a first glance looks pretty close to the 2017 top.
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One thing that could prove this is not a deadcat bounce and to watch out for ,is a VERY large green volume candle on a second bounce off the 50MA, signalling a good foundation for a trend reversal. Another point against this current outlook is that the present price of BTC has retraced higher on its fib levels than it did in 2018, I haven't included that in here as I wanted to keep this simple.
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Happy trading! (:
1.) In 2017, the price of BTC bounced of the 50MA and started its run back up signalling a potential reversal, however, as the volume shows it is not driven by the same kind of volume previously in the 2017 bullrun, the reversal had little backing. This showed that this bounce did not have the juice in it to continue the reversal, and hence it broke down and shot below the 50MA.
2.) Here we can see that the price is now below the 50MA where it had not previously been for the 2016/2017 bullrun. The price stayed here for roughly 5-6 months, with a stable yet lower volume indicating the market had lost its public mania interest.
3.) This is the present day chart, where I have created a ghost pattern of the '2.)' section as an overview of what we could POTENTIALLY expect to see if this is indeed a similar deadcat bounce from 2018.
What to watch out for here in the next months if this downtrend continues, is to see if the BTC breaks below the 50MA (approx. $37,500). The post peak, low volume is already setting itself up for this narrative, we just need see how the price reacts to the 50MA.
IMO, (not financial advice as always) this just looks to similar to the past 2017 bullrun. I dont think we can push all time highs again so soon because we have already used up the mania hype so recently, they would be hesitant to jump in again. I believe we need to mania hype now at these prices more than ever as because rather than in 2017, where the market cap needed 10's of billions of dollars to move the price significantly, now it requires 100's of billions. The SEC stuff happening right now is all to coincidentally timed for this potential deadcat bounce as well, keeping the public 'protected' (lol).
All my trading bots are long atm so god help me for hedging against them haha, but this just looks all to simple to see without overdoing it with indicators. ULTIMATELEY the final bottom in the far future for bitcoin may just bounce off nicely on the 200MA as it has previously, which at a first glance looks pretty close to the 2017 top.
----------------
One thing that could prove this is not a deadcat bounce and to watch out for ,is a VERY large green volume candle on a second bounce off the 50MA, signalling a good foundation for a trend reversal. Another point against this current outlook is that the present price of BTC has retraced higher on its fib levels than it did in 2018, I haven't included that in here as I wanted to keep this simple.
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Happy trading! (:
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