Bitcoin: Trends and Cycles

2018年12月23日

Today I am going to talk about the Trends and Cycles of Bitcoin.
To get a better understanding of the future, we always look back, and try to get a clear judgement of current position.
I am not going to spend too many words on the trends of bitcoin. Because confirming the trend is really simple. The easiest way, also the most effective way, to get a correct insight of the trends is to extend the time frame of the price candles. With a broader vision, you will see that trends never reverse in a day.

2018年12月23日

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We can see that, from 2015, bitcoin is ascending step by steps, and box by boxes. From this point of view, we believe bitcoin is forming another box forward now. In ideal cases, recent uptrend would help us to confirm the upper edge of the box, and then, price will swing inside the box for quite while. How long would this last? I try to deduce the conclusion from the price cycle of Ethereum, as follows,

2018年12月23日

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tradingview.com/x/oIdnyce6/https://www.tradingview.com/x/UATdLvp1/

2018年12月23日

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2018年12月23日

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https://\https://www.tradingview.com/x/BiDwCaBv/

2018年12月23日

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2018年12月23日

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As shown in the charts, we can see that the cycles of bitcoin is approximately 1.5x of Ethereum's. We thus deduce that this swing period would last around 120 days, which means it might last until Mar 2019. As the descending trend line is also there, we believe that will be a appropriate time for market change.

2018年12月23日

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It looks like a boring conclusion for no direction. Many people might lose patient on this. but that's why I believe this is gonna to happen. Remember, 'The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.' Keep patient and do not make mistakes, good luck for your trading.