BTCUSD: Wave 4 Contracting Triangle Status

2016年7月20日

My previous chart is still in play although the timing may have been off.

There are currently three scenarios in play:

• Wave 4 has already concluded and Wave (5) up has begun. (I do not believe this to be the case since the move up has not been impulsive which would be required for a wave 5)
  
• We are still in an ABCDE triangle pattern which is what I have charted. Wave (D) would have concluded with the July 16th high and we are currently in wave (E) down. If this is the current scenario then I would expect for wave (E) to complete within the next 3-7 days followed by an impulsive move up to begin wave (5). The top of the Ichimoku Cloud would make a perfect bottom of wave (E) resistance for the reversal. With my last chart, I cautioned that wave (E) tend to false breakdown which would happen in this scenario as it would require it to break the green trend line from the wave (A) bottom to the wave (C) bottom and which we have followed very closely for the past 7-10 days.
  
• The final option is that we are in wave 4 with an extended combination pattern such as WXY. If this is the current scenario then we would be at best slightly greater than half way through it and at worst, only a third of the way through it; meaning it would take a few weeks to resolve before concluding wave (4) down and followed by wave (5) up. If this scenario unfolds then I will post an update.
  

The good news is that regardless of which of these scenarios that are followed that wave (4) will eventually end and wave (5) will take us up past the wave (3) high.