First cycle is confirmed, now it is to nail in the second. I am too lazy to check the past so I watch it unfold instead. A 23 % more drop into 7th-9th ish if it is correct.
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I can see now that this will fail and I found the cause
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The answer is in data providers that led to wrong pivots. Bitfinex:
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Bistamp:
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For the untrained eye they look the same, but see how the 4th is a lower price than the 27th on Bitstamp, but it fails to be so on Bitfinex. Conclusion: Quality of the data is crucial.