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BTC simple chart analysis update

由Ftradorex提供

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ABC correction finished. Waiting for bearish E.W. to form and become part of the triangle pattern.

Triangle pattern is made by the Fifth peak of an E.W. and ABC correction.
Fibonacci (on H4) is put between peak 2 and peak 0 of E.W. . On H1 it is on peak 4 to peak 2. It is like this because from peak 2 to peak 0 fibonacci 300% is too low.

Note: whales are buying so sell would be a good risk.

交易开始

I have here the retracement path drawed but is not 100% accurate. Still, it is well builded.
*It is based on a repeated 0.70% from previus LL. Fibonacci 100% level only is used for the loop.
*Moved SL above HH (or closer).
*Moved TP at front 338%.

交易结束：到达止损

My SL has been reached like a rabbit being hunted by an arrow.

注释

Working on new E.W. by recent HH...

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I analyzed H4 t.f. and everything is fine. Still bearishtrend confirmed.
I open the trade here, but you guys can wait for chart reach around 70.5k or higher to sell.

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First wave finished.

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Good news for the bearish trade.

D1 shows that chart needs to do correction toward 59k, so this trade can let be open to see if this bearish trend reach to break the triangle pattern and go full short. It will be a good chance to risk it since we already traded bearish.

交易结束：到达目标

The target of H4 t.f. E.W. has been done. Sad that I didn't post it.

注释

Now chart can do a retracement.

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This is the plan. That is, if this daily candlestick doesn't do a upper shadow. If it does, then 300% fibo. gets shorter.

注释

One target is from H4 E.W. that was extended. The other one is D1 E.W. .

交易结束：到达目标

Now you can decide if take profit and take the reversal or keep it SL tracking. See in image that, remember, there is still room for bullish spike until triangle pattern is finished.

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Retracement is succesfully predicted, but I'll wait for chart double bottom confirmation to lower SL. the TP is already set at 300%, and retracement path has been drawed.

注释

Change on plans: market is going really bearish almost breaking the formation. This is highly a fake. I recommend to not trade or to set SL below number 2. Conformation should be done once a green candlestick on H4 appear. Then double bottom and then buy.

注释

It should stop by now. It formed an bearish E.W. and stopped at 300%. Now buying is open but better wait for second bearish candle which is what I'm going to do.

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SL below LL. Lets see if I take it from deep below.

注释

Is going sideways. Probably will keep it like that for the day. News are trying to tell people to sell while chart is already at a strong support zone, not that it can't do a new LL. Better stay alert.

订单已取消

This is a deeper analysis.

Chart is going sideways, expecting to finish around 1d and 12h. Needs to finish two packs of abcde waves to redirect distribution.
Needs to reach 59k for volume correction, so, sideways is the best way to do this.
I'll cancel the trade. There's no warranty that chart will go high. It's better loose the trade that have a SL run.

注释

For the ones that wants to do the scalping, I won't be publishing it, but you can follow what the above image haves and build it yourself. Any question will be answered.

Each abcde wave should be a high and low that chart makes.

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The two abcde waves that redirects the distribution finished, and it's a bullish distribution. Still, retracement is expected for the 1 to 2 wave of E.W (following H4 t.f.). And m15 needs to form a bearish E.W., but since it's just a retracement, we can buy now or wait. Buying now is wise, waiting haves more gamble but more profit.

Note: probably I won't be giving attention to the chart when first wave finishes.

Recent News are making traders sell. This is a great chance for a bulish toward the triangle pattern. But if news change to "buy", E.W. can get smaller.

注释

SL below LL.

交易结束：到达止损

Analysis of my mistake:
*[If chart touches SL it was because I made a mistake.]
Analysis: Chart finished a bearish H4 E.W. and then continued sideways. Two packs of Abcde where made, but I put two waves bad, making me struggle. I knew that something was wrong but ignore it, by this mistake, SL was hunted. Even so, 1d with 12h are almost passed, as predicted, sideways reached until this time. Chart went cloose to 59k, was an almost perfect prediction. But I just have to learn and keep moving on, I have someone to live for and mistakes won't put me on depresion because of the Above One. Now, if calculations are correct, this should be the correct finished a to e wave to start the bullish trend. But because of recent LL, a to e wave needs to start again, in other words, another set of sideways can happen.

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Found a greater solution from reconstructing the E.W and chart has reached 300% of it with the new LL that has made. Still hasn't do the full correction, so can't say if it will go up now but I can say that a new bullish E.W. needs to form on H4 or H1. Following the same plan from the previous trades I have published, I put the SL at 461% of E.W. fibonacci and start trading so then adjust TP when time comes.

注释

I also changed the ABC correction with an A to E wave which gives more reliability that chart will go up to finish E trend.

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Thank☝You. Chart in H1 t.f. has done so much small candlesticks that E.W. have high probability to be smaller. Right now, best thing to do is SL track to evoid surprises.

I adjusted TP and SL.

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First wave on H4 confirmed. Because of the recent green candle, E.W., if close long, will be big.

TP should be open until 3 to 4 waves are settle.

注释

But there's one thing. On H1 only one set of a to e wave has been made. So chart can do two things: One, stablish the a to e wave as an extension for the bullishtrend; two, make sideways waves to finish it and then go bullish, which, will shorten the E.W.

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This is the plan.
Retracement has been draw.
I sugest to close and take profit since there are still two waves to finish and I don't know how bearish this will get. If you don't want to close, move SL on 461%; same as the previous image with the big SL.
Scalpers can follow the retracement path if they feel confident to take them.

交易手动结束

Bearish candle is strong, so if it close as it is, great chance to be a bearishtrend directly to volume correction that is still undone. At 59.1k.

注释

The two sets of a to e waves that starts from a HH or LL it's to stablish a point where chart can't keep in manipulation phase.

It would have been better to close trade at finished a to e wave and wait for the second one to complete.

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Every trend haves an E.W. .
It's risky but it's a chance. TP should be open if chart continues to 55k.

Follow up with SL tracking.

交易结束：到达止损

Well, this things can happen when you take the risk.

注释

I believe it will go sideways again for over 10 hours.
the two sets of A to E waves start new because it's a new LL.

注释

Plan set.

H1 Bullish E.W. finished. Waiting for bearish E.W. fifth wave at 300% of fibo.
*Fibonacci is between the 2 and 4 peak.
Additionally, a to e wave needs to finish, so sideways will keep going for a long time. Since a to e waves are not related with minor E.W., trades can keep going while it finishes the 10 waves (two sets of a.w.)

注释

Awaiting second a to e wave. Approximately in 20 hours.

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I changed the triangle because it seemed wrong. Now it's more accurate.

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Scalping prediction is a success.
chart is going up now, so we can start buying from here.

注释

I'm thinking on closing SL, so if d to e wave is really bearish, then we just buy again.

*H4 hasn't done not evwn the first set of a to e wave, so bearish will continue. We should take bullish until the first a.w on H4 finishes. Like the other time, we can close at first set and sell the second one.

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we can take the risk to 66k. And close SL once it reaches two green candlestick on H1.

注释

Chart reached 300% of micro E.W.
Fibonacci is between 0 and 2.
Chances of reversal are high if it close like this.

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m15 shows a 300% higher then H1. Chart can keep bullish for now.

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I'll take profit here and stop the scalping update because it would be too much to post.

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H1 E.W. shows candle hit 300%. This would be the final wave of a to e wave on H4.

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It reached 400% but SL will be the same.
This bullish candle was made of the two sets of a to e waves on H1 and new E.W. starts.

It was same zones that the one I have earlier. SL adjusted.

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I notice that I made a mistake with the fibo and SL should be higher.
Adjust SL.

交易结束：到达止损

Analysis of my mistake:
I adjusted an H1 E.W. to the a.w just like it was suppose to be. But the E.W. I made was a micro one. Learned that in new E.W. chart doesn't accept waves between 1 to 2 wave and 3 to 4 wave. Making this logic, chart will go high bullish a lot more as fibonacci now is much bigger.

注释

Well, it was fun trading for you guys. But I will stop posting. I need other things to do.

注释

And probably my mistake is bigger then what I say it was.