BITCOIN - Big Bearish Signs (Mid-, Short-term)!
已更新
My last movements predictions have been quite perfect. The bounce areas and the breakout areas were nicely exploited and we had some nice movements.
At the moment there are some big bearish signs from the higher timeframe, reversal area is not so perfectly identified but don't worry, we should catch some breakout trades. Let's start a bit deeper analysis:
The last Weekly candle close gave us a really strong bearish sign, one of the most powerful bearish candlestick pattern Evening Star (on the Weekly chart, which is a higher timeframe and candlestick patterns working much better in the higher timeframes)
Evening Star will be an indication that higher success rate would be on SELL trades. To bring here some statistics then, do you remember that title "BITCOIN - 66% Probability For Further Growth!". This was said because of the Weekly candles which got a close above the 8k, we had a small sample size (three), two times after the close above the $8,000 it was made a climb into the higher levels and one was a fakeout and to remind you that history then the probability % guided the BTC price into the higher levels((8k to 9k). Currently, we have another 66% probability but for the further price decrease!
Again, we have three samples:
1. Weekly candle close below $8,000 on March 2018 ($6,816) - this was the mentioned fakeout, two weeks and the price was again above the $8,000.
2. Weekly candle close below $8,000 on May 2018 ($7,346- Small stop on the next week price action and after that, the fall continues to the well-known level $6,000
3. Weekly candle close below $8,000 on July 2018 ($7,030) - again, the fall continues to the well-known support area $6,000.
So, three samples, two have guided the price into the lower levels and we have one fakeout. After some heavy math, we have a 66% probability (again) but as said, now we have a 66% probability for further fall but there are more signs to confirm that.
Probably you noticed it already but those two falls have occurred after the Weekly candle close $7,xxx, fakeout was lowest at $6,816. The last Weekly candle close was also $7,xxx ($7,634) AND it formed a bearish candlestick pattern Evening Star (which should be the most powerful bearish candlestick pattern). So, the math supporting further fall and the price action supporting that further fall.
Let's dig into the smaller timeframes for searching confirmations.
As you see on the image the price is still on the Descending Channel.
I add a picture for phone users, it should be better to watch:
The Bitcoin price has confirmed Lower Low (LL) and a new Lower High (LH) which is downtrend indications. If the price starts to make a breakout upwards from the Descending Channel (the area between orange trendlines) then as said, there is pretty hard to identify the reversal area, reversal criteria don't match perfectly. Example: if there is a good resistance area with some great criteria inside of it then there is also a breakout from the bullish chart pattern and etc. It is not easy and if the reversal area is not easy to identify then usually they don't work as strong as they should be especially when we have really strong bearish sings from the higher timeframes, BUT I would like to give you a price level which is my observation, the area stays around $8,200-$8,450. If this is not a reversal area then it should be partial profit taking area for longs holders.
The trend is your friend and currently, we have indications through the LL & LH that the current short-term trend is downwards and the higher timeframe analysis confirms that. So, at the moment the only clear trading idea would be a breakout trade into the short-term downwards trend direction. There is a red line and if the 4H candle gets a close below of it then we might see a $350 to $800 price fall.
After the 4H candle close below the red line the price has cracked some important support levels:
1. EMA200 - it has held us three times around the current area
2. The semi-round number $7,500 - same story as EMA200
3. New Lower Low confirmation area
Some other indications:
4. From the Weekly chart a bearish candlestick pattern called Evening Star, really strong bearish candlestick pattern
5. Math is supporting current fall, 66% probability for further fall
6. We are on the Descending Channel.
7. The trend is your friend
Wait for a 4H candle close below the red line, below $7,400 and the target should stay $6,700-$7,050.
If the price starts to approach that higher gray box which can be the mentioned reversal area then I will make constant updates because we need some bearish price action inside the box. This is a risky area because of the mixed signs!
Feel free to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
At the moment there are some big bearish signs from the higher timeframe, reversal area is not so perfectly identified but don't worry, we should catch some breakout trades. Let's start a bit deeper analysis:
The last Weekly candle close gave us a really strong bearish sign, one of the most powerful bearish candlestick pattern Evening Star (on the Weekly chart, which is a higher timeframe and candlestick patterns working much better in the higher timeframes)
Evening Star will be an indication that higher success rate would be on SELL trades. To bring here some statistics then, do you remember that title "BITCOIN - 66% Probability For Further Growth!". This was said because of the Weekly candles which got a close above the 8k, we had a small sample size (three), two times after the close above the $8,000 it was made a climb into the higher levels and one was a fakeout and to remind you that history then the probability % guided the BTC price into the higher levels((8k to 9k). Currently, we have another 66% probability but for the further price decrease!
Again, we have three samples:
1. Weekly candle close below $8,000 on March 2018 ($6,816) - this was the mentioned fakeout, two weeks and the price was again above the $8,000.
2. Weekly candle close below $8,000 on May 2018 ($7,346- Small stop on the next week price action and after that, the fall continues to the well-known level $6,000
3. Weekly candle close below $8,000 on July 2018 ($7,030) - again, the fall continues to the well-known support area $6,000.
So, three samples, two have guided the price into the lower levels and we have one fakeout. After some heavy math, we have a 66% probability (again) but as said, now we have a 66% probability for further fall but there are more signs to confirm that.
Probably you noticed it already but those two falls have occurred after the Weekly candle close $7,xxx, fakeout was lowest at $6,816. The last Weekly candle close was also $7,xxx ($7,634) AND it formed a bearish candlestick pattern Evening Star (which should be the most powerful bearish candlestick pattern). So, the math supporting further fall and the price action supporting that further fall.
Let's dig into the smaller timeframes for searching confirmations.
As you see on the image the price is still on the Descending Channel.
I add a picture for phone users, it should be better to watch:
The Bitcoin price has confirmed Lower Low (LL) and a new Lower High (LH) which is downtrend indications. If the price starts to make a breakout upwards from the Descending Channel (the area between orange trendlines) then as said, there is pretty hard to identify the reversal area, reversal criteria don't match perfectly. Example: if there is a good resistance area with some great criteria inside of it then there is also a breakout from the bullish chart pattern and etc. It is not easy and if the reversal area is not easy to identify then usually they don't work as strong as they should be especially when we have really strong bearish sings from the higher timeframes, BUT I would like to give you a price level which is my observation, the area stays around $8,200-$8,450. If this is not a reversal area then it should be partial profit taking area for longs holders.
The trend is your friend and currently, we have indications through the LL & LH that the current short-term trend is downwards and the higher timeframe analysis confirms that. So, at the moment the only clear trading idea would be a breakout trade into the short-term downwards trend direction. There is a red line and if the 4H candle gets a close below of it then we might see a $350 to $800 price fall.
After the 4H candle close below the red line the price has cracked some important support levels:
1. EMA200 - it has held us three times around the current area
2. The semi-round number $7,500 - same story as EMA200
3. New Lower Low confirmation area
Some other indications:
4. From the Weekly chart a bearish candlestick pattern called Evening Star, really strong bearish candlestick pattern
5. Math is supporting current fall, 66% probability for further fall
6. We are on the Descending Channel.
7. The trend is your friend
Wait for a 4H candle close below the red line, below $7,400 and the target should stay $6,700-$7,050.
If the price starts to approach that higher gray box which can be the mentioned reversal area then I will make constant updates because we need some bearish price action inside the box. This is a risky area because of the mixed signs!
Feel free to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
注释
The lower blue trendline, the EMA200 has held the price and it got a pretty nice pump upwards to the psychological level $8,000.Currently, the price is above the Ascending Channel, which is a bit sloppy because of the second touch and it has started to approach that higher blue trendline, which should be a bit more accurate because this is pulled from wick to wick!
The upper blue trendline, the strong area around $8,110 and together, they make a crossing area which makes this price level pretty strong.
Just above that mentioned crossing area is another strong resistance - the prementioned partial profit or reversal zone.
So, do not FOMO (fear of missing out) because of the push, there are really heavy resistances before we can go into the higher levels!
Regards,
Vaido
Analysts for Swipex
注释
The yesterday's candle got a slight close above the psychological level $8,000. Currently, the price is stopped on the trendline and on the area where we had multiple rejections - around $8,110.Still, we can't do anything because the heavy resistance is just above the current price. If it makes a breakout above the trendline into the green box, then we should look at what it does next because there are really strong reversal sings (bearish reversal) plus bearish signs from the Weekly but on the other hand, we have a breakout from bullish patterns and break above the counter trendline (the blue line from the top).
One interesting sign more, which will be a bullish sign. Some traders have started to see a bearish chart pattern called Head & Shoulders, great. Watch it, because if there starts to become more and more analysis about the HS, which is too easily spottable, then this could be printed into the chart by market makers and the short squeeze may start ;)
Chart patterns are ONLY then valid when they have made a breakout and breakout gets confirmed after a candle close outside the pattern!!
If this is the HS then it simply confirms our bearish confirmation area which stays below $7,500!
Regards,
Vaido
Analysts for Swipex
注释
As said perfectly on my yesterday's post: "do not FOMO (fear of missing out) because of the push, there are really heavy resistances before we can go into the higher levels!"The price came down pretty sharply from the crossing area(from the round number, from the trendline, and from the $8,110 (strong price level).
Now, it started to approach those lower blue trendlines. If we look at those trendlines then we can get a chart pattern called Triangle. The triangle tip coming closer which will be an indication that soon we might see an important movement.
First bearish confirmation should come after the blue trendlines gets cracked and the full confirmation comes after the new short term lower low which stays around $7,400!
Regards,
Vaido
Analysts for Swipex
注释
New Idea post - a possible short-term BUY opportunity:
Feel free to support my idea post, the "LIKE" would be nice ;)
Regards!
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