BTC Reset - Back to Reality

2020年1月23日

BTC tested the 200-day MA and failed. We also failed to create support on the top-side of the down channel (upper level). Now we're seeing a bearish crossover on the daily MACD. I'd expect some significant movement down over the next week or so.
Note: we've fallen out of the ichi cloud on the weekly and also fallen below the .5 fib.
For comparison, the last time we saw a bearish crossover on the daily (Nov 8th) we dropped 26% over 17 days. That occured around the same time we fell below the 200-day MA. While serious downside action is possible we have several areas to find support: 100-day MA, daily ichi cloud and the 50-day MA (BTC doesn't really care about). What I'm really curious about is how BTC reacts to the bottom of the short-term upper trend (in thick red) and more importantly BTC's overall trend (thick dark blue). That overall trend line provided support during the Dec 2018 bottom and goes all the way back to Apr 2017.
Note 2: this little run up hasn't been supported with increasing volume.

2020年1月24日

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2020年1月24日

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Rejected off 20-day MA and bottom of pitchfan.
However, there's a battle with the .5 and 20-period MA (4hr).
More downside.

2020年1月24日

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2020年2月5日

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Closed. Decisively in upward channel with multiple tests.